Asteroid 2024 YR4 impact probability increases again for 2032, but still remain extremely low
The probability of impact crossed 1% in late January and reached 1.9% Wednesday. The latest calculations show the odds have increased a little more to 2.3%.
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An asteroid as large as the width of an NFL football field will approach Earth in less than a decade, and the chances of it striking our planet have increased just a bit. But experts stress the event is not cause for alarm.
Known as "2024 YR4," the asteroid is estimated to be about 130 feet wide and is expected to swing close to Earth on Dec. 22, 2032.
Previous calculations of the likelihood of 2024 YR4 actually crashing into our planet have been very low, and remain so, but have slowly been increasing as more observations come in. The probability of impact crossed 1% in late January and reached 1.9% Wednesday. The latest calculations Friday show the odds have increased a little more to 2.3%.
Near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4 observed with the European Southern Observatory's Very Large Telescope in January 2025.
(Credit: ESO/O. Hainaut et al. / FOX Weather)
This means that the object still has around a 98% chance of missing us.
The likelihood of a collision will fluctuate as more observations are conducted, and the most recent calculations are factored in, according to NASA.
In fact, scientists said the chances may increase more as Dec. 2032 draws nearer and additional observations are made before likely decreasing again.
"Because orbits stemming from very limited observation sets are more uncertain it is more likely that such orbits will ‘permit’ future impacts," NASA stated on its website. "However, such early predictions can often be ruled out as we incorporate more observations and reduce the uncertainties in the object's orbit. Most often, the threat associated with a specific object will decrease as additional observations become available."
The space agency also noted that the probability of a collision could eventually drop to zero as more information about the asteroid's trajectory is collected.
Space experts also caution that due to the asteroid's trajectory and its proximity to the Sun, it may become impossible to track using telescopes for several years. As a result, any significant update on its trajectory may not occur until 2028.
The asteroid has been given a Level 3 out of 10 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, which is a system used to communicate the potential dangers posed by near-Earth objects.
At Level 3, the scale suggests: "A close encounter, meriting attention by astronomers. Current calculations give a 1% or greater chance of collision capable of localized destruction. Most likely, new telescopic observations will lead to re-assignment to Level 0. Attention by public and by public officials is merited if the encounter is less than a decade away."
The alert level is the second-highest recorded since 2004, when the asteroid Apophis reached a Level 4, but additional observations later determined that its trajectory would cause it to pass Earth at a safe distance of around 20,000 miles in 2029.