Why chances of asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting Earth just dropped by half
After a jump to a 1 in 32 (3.2%) chance of asteroid 2024 YR4 impacting Earth, "the highest impact probability NASA has ever recorded for an object of this size or larger," the space agency said new data has dropped those odds to a 1 in 67 (1.5%) chance. There is also a small chance the asteroid could hit the Moon.
Watch: Video shows asteroid blasting across night sky above Philippines
FILE: A video shared from the Philippines shows a bright asteroid burning through the atmosphere on Sept. 5, 2024.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 continues to keep us on our toes as astronomers work to determine its potential threat to our planet. The latest update is good news because, according to NASA, the chances of a 2032 Earth impact have dropped.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered on Dec. 27 by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) telescope in Río Hurtado, Chile. Since its discovery, the asteroid has warranted international attention and remains the highest asteroid threat on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale – even though there is a nearly 99% chance the asteroid will pass Earth safely in seven years.
Asteroid 2024 YR4.
(NASA)
After a jump to a 1 in 32 (3.2%) chance of impacting Earth, "the highest impact probability NASA has ever recorded for an object of this size or larger," the space agency said new data has dropped those odds to a 1 in 67 (1.5%) chance.
According to the European Space Agency, asteroid 2024 YR4 holds the record for the highest impact probability for an asteroid larger than 30 meters (90 feet). The last record holder was asteroid Apophis in 2004, which briefly had a 2.7% chance of impact.
NASA also said there is a small (less than 1%) chance that Asteroid 2024 YR4 will hit the Moon.
The improvement is due to the recent full Moon. Large telescopes observing the asteroid need dark skies to track it. With a new Moon approaching, observations have restarted this week.
Graphic of the possible locations of 2024 YR4 on Dec. 22, 2032 as of Feb. 19, 2025. Earth is close to the center of the white circle, which represents the Moon’s orbital path. The range of possibilities has decreased from the previous image because of the additional data gathered.
(NASA JPL/CNEOS)
The yellow dots in the graphic above show the possible location of the asteroid on Dec. 22, 2032.
"As we continue to observe the asteroid’s motion over time, the region of possible locations will shrink even further," NASA wrote. "For the impact probability to drop to zero, the Earth would need to fall outside of the range of potential locations of asteroid 2024 YR4 on Dec. 22, 2032."
ASTEROID 2024 YR4 IS UNLIKELY TO HIT EARTH, BUT HERE’S WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF IT DID
Asteroid 2024 YR4 is estimated to be between 100 and 300 feet wide. In a few weeks, NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope will use its Mid-InfaRed Instrument (MIRI) to study the thermal energy from the space rock, to help determine its size. This will provide an important data point in understanding the asteroid's threat to Earth and the Moon.
Because of its orbit, the asteroid will fade from Earth’s view over the next few months and won't become visible again until 2028. In the meantime, scientists are using powerful telescopes on Earth to monitor the asteroid before it moves behind the Sun.
This won't be the last update on 2024 YR4. NASA said it expects new observations of the asteroid in the coming weeks will again change the impact probability.