Chances Asteroid 2024 YR4 will hit Moon increase but Earth remains in the clear
New observations by NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope helped astronomers determine the size of asteroid 2024YR4, which is about as wide as a 10-story building. As chances of an Earth impact fell, the likelihood of the asteroid hitting the Moon have doubled.
What are the chances asteroid 2024 YR4 will hit Earth?
FEBRUARY 2025 VIDEO: A NASA asteroid tracker explains how scientists are calculating the risk to Earth from asteroid 2024 YR4.
An asteroid that set off a global effort to determine if it would impact Earth in 2032 is no longer a threat to our planet. However, chances of a hit to the Moon are increasing.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered on Dec. 27 by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) telescope in Río Hurtado, Chile. Since its discovery, the asteroid has warranted international attention, jumping to the highest asteroid threat on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale. In February, new ground-based observations dropped those chances of an Earth impact enough that asteroid 2024 YR4 is no longer considered a threat.
WHY CHANCES OF ASTEROID 2024 YR4 HITTING EARTH JUST DROPPED BY MORE THAN HALF
In March, the powerful James Webb Space Telescope observed this newly discovered space rock using infrared imaging to reduce the uncertainty about its size, which was estimated to be between 130 and 300 feet. According to NASA, the asteroid is between 174 and 220 feet, or about the size of a 10-story building. Determining its size was key to updating the asteroid's protected orbit in relation to Earth.
Graphic of the possible locations – represented by yellow points – of asteroid 2024 YR4 on Dec. 22, 2032, as of Apr. 2, 2025. (NASA JPL/CNEOS)
While chances of an Earth impact have dropped significantly, the possibility of a Moon hit has doubled since 2024 YR4's discovery. In February, the Moon had about a 1.7% chance of an impact from this object. Currently, those odds are up to 3.8%.
"There is still a 96.2% chance that the asteroid will miss the Moon," NASA wrote in a blog. "In the small chance that the asteroid were to impact, it would not alter the Moon’s orbit."
Because of its orbit, the asteroid will fade from Earth’s view over the next few months and won't become visible again until 2028, but space-based telescopes can still be our eyes in the sky to track 2024 YR4. NASA said the James Webb Space Telescope will complete additional observations of 2024 YR4 later this month and in May, adding new data to this interesting cosmic challenge.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 holds the record for the highest Earth impact probability for an asteroid larger than 30 meters (90 feet). The last record holder was asteroid Apophis in 2004, which briefly had a 2.7% chance of impact.