Climate change could cut half-year off life expectancy, study says
At the current rate of global temperature rise, climate change is on pace to cut life expectancy by up to half-a-year and will likely impact females more than males, according to researchers.
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Climate change could shave up to a half-year off a person's life expectancy around the globe, new research suggests.
The study from New York's New School and Shaljalal University published Thursday in the journal PLOS Climate also said that females will likely bear the brunt of the decrease in life expectancy.
"The findings of this study suggest that if the annual average temperature increases by 1 degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) then the life expectancy at birth will decline by 0.44 years," the authors of the study wrote. "Moreover, climate change will disproportionately reduce the life expectancy of females more than the life expectancy of males."
If the climate change index (a way to quantify rainfall and temperature changes) increases by 10 points, life expectancy goes down by 0.5 years, or 6 months, according to the study.
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"If the annual average temperature increases by 1 degree Celsius, the life expectancy at birth of males will decline by 0.65 years or by around 8 months, holding all other factors remain the same," researchers wrote. "If the annual average temperature increases by 1 degree Celsius, the life expectancy at birth of females will decline by 0.91 years or by around 10 months, holding all other factors remain the same."
Life expectancy is generally used as the best metric for assessing the health status of a nation, according to the study. The World Health Organization has called climate change an "urgent" health challenge.
According to a United Nations report, between 2030 and 2050, climate change could cause an additional 250,000 deaths per year and cost the world $4 billion in income.
The research looked at 191 countries from 1940 to 2020.
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Why would climate change impact health?
Warming temperatures are the most significant factor of climate change, the scientists found. They define global climate change as long-term shifts in temperature, rainfall and other fundamental properties of climate. Global climate change will not only directly impact weather and the intensity and frequency of natural disasters but indirectly through economic systems and ecosystems as well.
"Higher temperature increases the polar ice shields melting and resulting in the sea level rising which is catastrophic for coastal countries," said the study. "Higher temperatures increase water evaporation, which increases the risk of severe droughts in landlocked countries. The potential future effects of escalating temperatures also include more frequent wildfires and tropical cyclones (hurricanes)."
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A European Commission report also said that higher temperatures will mean a fall in output, reduced productivity and reduced food security.
The authors point to a number of direct and indirect consequences of temperature rise and changes to the rainfall cycle:
- Heavier rain events and drought lead to crop damage and, in turn, means lower food production and rising food prices, income loss and eventually wars over conflict over natural resources.
- More rain can increase waterborne diseases (like food poisoning) and vector-borne diseases (like malaria, Zika and Lyme disease).
- Drought causes a decrease in clean drinking water.
- More natural disasters can lead to disability from injuries and loss or disruption of health care access through infrastructure.
- An increase in the number of and severity of dust storms, wildfires and air pollutants impact health.
"The emotional toll of such events (natural disasters) can lead to post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), anxiety, depression, and other mental health issues and increase the rate of suicides," said the study.
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Lesser developed countries impacted more
Everyone will not be impacted equally, according to the study.
"Our findings suggest that climate disruption and its associated natural calamities are not evenly distributed globally," the authors wrote. "Some regions, particularly the least developed countries, are more vulnerable due to their geographic location, socioeconomic factors, and existing levels of resilience and preparedness."
According to the CDC, life expectancy in the U.S. is 76.4 years – 73.5 years for males and 79.3 for females. Authors cited a global life expectancy of 68.36 years. Globally, numbers rose from 1960, when 55 years was the life expectancy. The COVID-19 pandemic caused the numbers to drop slightly from a high in 2020.
File: An employee of the Thalia banana farm, works in El Triunfo, Ecuador, March 2022.
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Global temperature changes so far
The global average temperature shot up from 15 degrees Celsius (59 degrees Fahrenheit) to 21 degrees Celsius (69.8 degrees Fahrenheit) in 1990. Temperatures then dropped by 1 degree Celsius since 1990. Still, statistics show that the global surface temperature increased by 1.1 degrees Celsius (almost 2 degrees Fahrenheit) between 2011 and 2020 compared to the pre-industrial era of 1850 to 1900.
"Climate change threats may also accumulate over time, leading to longer-term changes in resilience and health," researchers wrote.
Authors said that mitigating efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adaptations to changing conditions are essential to minimize the health risks associated with climate change.