Earth in the clear from Asteroid 2024 YR4 strike in 2032 after impact chances drop to nearly zero
Asteroid 2024 YR4's impact probability has dropped to 0.0017% or 1-in-59,000 odds of an impact in December 2032.
What are the chances asteroid 2024 YR4 will hit Earth?
A NASA asteroid tracker explains how scientists are calculating the risk to Earth from asteroid 2024 YR4.
Earthlings can keep their plans seven years from now after scientists have officially declared Asteroid 2024 YR4 is not a threat to our planet.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered on Dec. 27 by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) telescope in Río Hurtado, Chile. Since its discovery, the asteroid gained global attention, jumping to a 3-out-of-10 threat on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale.
According to NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies, Asteroid 2024 YR4 has fallen off the Torino scale after recent observations. The impact probability dropped to 0.0017% or 1-in-59,000 odds of an impact in December 2032.
At the highest threat, the asteroid only had about a 3% chance of hitting Earth, which was the highest impact probability NASA has ever recorded for an object of this size. The last record holder was Asteroid Apophis in 2004, which briefly had a 2.7% chance of impact.
How did scientists rule out an impact from Asteroid 2024 YR4?
Since its discovery, Asteroid 2024 YR4 has warranted international attention, and large telescopes around the world continue to track the space rock before it fades out of view behind the Sun this spring.
According to the International Astronomical Union’s Minor Planet Center website, more than 400 observations have been recorded since late December.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 seen on Jan. 27, 2025 by the Magdalena Ridge 2.4m telescope.
(NASA/Magdalena Ridge 2.4m telescope/New Mexico Institute of Technology/Ryan)
Each new observation was added to orbit calculations to determine the impact probability, eventually dropping it to near zero.
What would happen if Asteroid 2024 YR4 did hit Earth?
Scientists are still determining the asteroid's size, but it's believed to be between 100 and 300 feet wide. According to NASA, an asteroid of this size could cause regional damage.
The space agency said if a small 130- to 200-foot asteroid entered Earth's atmosphere over a populated area, an airburst could shatter windows or cause structural damage across a city. A larger asteroid over 300 feet could cause more severe damage, even collapsing homes across a town and shattering windows across a larger radius.
Near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4 observed with the European Southern Observatory's Very Large Telescope in January 2025.
(Credit: ESO/O. Hainaut et al. / FOX Weather)
In March, NASA's James Webb Space Telescope will complete thermal imaging of 2024 YR4 which should help determine its size.
After April, Asteroid 2024 YR4 will be too faint for Earth-based telescopes to see and will not be visible again until 2028.
Editor's note: The headline of this story has been updated to reflect that the chance has not dropped below zero.