Giant hole in the Sun could trigger solar storms in early February

NOAA Space weather forecasters are monitoring two coronal holes on the Sun for space weather impacts on Earth. G1 geomagnetic storm levels are possible in early February.

Two giant holes in the Sun could create impactful space weather for Earth in early February.

Recent NOAA satellite images show two coronal holes, areas on the surface of the Sun with cooler plasma. Forecasters with NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) are monitoring the larger coronal hole in the Northern Hemisphere and a smaller, narrower hole in the Southern Hemisphere. 

"Both are likely to provide an enhanced and disturbed solar wind environment to start off February, but our models indicate more likely influences from the northern CH (coronal hole)," said Shawn Dahl, service coordinator at NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center.

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These dark areas on the Sun, as seen in satellite images, can produce space weather events known as coronal hole high-speed streams (CH HSS), which can trigger Northern Lights on Earth.

The SWPC rates solar storms on a five-level scale, with five being the most extreme and rarest space weather conditions. As of Tuesday, the SWPC is considering active conditions between Feb. 1 and 3, just short of G1, the first level of a geomagnetic storm. 

As the CH HSS influences first begin to reach Earth, there is a chance for G1 (minor) storm conditions.

If G1 levels are reached as a coronal high-speed stream impacts Earth, the Northern Lights could be visible along the northern tier and Upper Midwest. 

What is a coronal hole?

Unlike coronal mass ejection, which can take between one and three days to reach Earth's atmosphere, coronal holes can have delayed impacts.

A coronal hole looks like a vast area of blackness in the Sun because coronal holes consist of cooler, less dense plasma. This plasma is able to travel at faster speeds into space, streaming along the Sun's magnetic field lines. 

WHAT CAUSES THE NORTHERN LIGHTS?

Depending on where the coronal hole is located, it can impact what we experience on Earth. A coronal hole high-speed stream produces increased solar winds that leave the Sun radially. 

"When a CH rotates to the center of the Sun (directly facing Earth), the elevated speed starts its journey towards our planet. So, by the time the CH rotates to somewhere between 40-60 degrees west longitude (towards the right side limb of the Sun), that is usually when the HSS and its associated effects reach us here at Earth," Dahl said. 

However, CH HSS can sometimes have lasting impacts because the Sun spins every 27 days. If Earth gets hit by a high-speed stream, there's a chance it could strike again in 27 days.

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