Odds of Asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting Earth go up again
Updates on Asteroid 2024 YR4 have been slower during the full Moon, but experts say the precision of the object’s orbit is getting better. In March, NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope will focus on the potential threat to Earth providing the best estimate of its size.
Watch: Video shows asteroid blasting across night sky above Philippines
FILE VIDEO: A video shared from the Philippines shows a bright asteroid burning through the atmosphere on Sept. 5, 2024.
Large telescopes around the world continue to track Asteroid 2024 YR4 before it fades out of view this spring, and the odds of the newly discovered asteroid hitting Earth just went up.
However, even as the probability of the asteroid hitting Earth – which is now at 3.1% or a 1-in-32 chance – continues to slowly rise, so does the precision with which scientists know asteroid 2024 YR4’s orbit, according to Lowell Observatory asteroid and comet expert Teddy Kareta.
NASA and European Space Agency planetary defense offices are providing daily updates on Asteroid 2024 YR4. ESA updates its website once a day, and on Tuesday, the chances are at 2.8% that the asteroid will hit in 2032. NASA's Earth Impact Risk Summary puts the odds at just over 3%. Over the past two weeks, the chances have hovered around 2% until this update.
Near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4 observed with the European Southern Observatory's Very Large Telescope in January 2025.
(Credit: ESO/O. Hainaut et al. / FOX Weather)
In a few weeks, those odds are likely to drop. NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope will use its Mid-InfaRed Instrument (MIRI) to study the thermal energy from Asteroid 2024 YR4, which is another data point in figuring out how the size of the asteroid.
ASTEROID 2024 YR4 IS UNLIKELY TO HIT EARTH, BUT HERE’S WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IF IT DID
The asteroid’s size is very important, as the ESA points out: "The hazard represented by a 40-meter (130-foot) asteroid is very different from that of a 90-meter (300-foot) asteroid."
Because of its orbit, the asteroid will fade from Earth’s view over the next few months and won't become visible again until 2028. In the meantime, scientists are using powerful telescopes on Earth to monitor the asteroid before it moves behind the Sun.
Near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4 observed with the European Southern Observatory's Very Large Telescope in January 2025.
(Credit: ESO/O. Hainaut et al.)
Kareta said that the full Moon this past week has limited observations.
"The sky background is higher and thus finding small and faint objects is significantly tougher – but the Nordic Optical Telescope in La Palma and the Magdalena Ridge Observatory in New Mexico have started reporting positions again as we're moving away from the full Moon," Kareta said. "Lowell's big telescope, the Lowell Discovery Telescope, is similarly starting up again about now. As the object gets fainter and fainter, only bigger and bigger telescopes will be able to detect it from the ground."
If you don’t think this asteroid is getting enough attention, you can see a list of all the telescope observations since its discovery on the International Astronomical Union’s Minor Planet Center website. Nearly 400 observations have been recorded since late December.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered on Dec. 27 by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) telescope in Río Hurtado, Chile. Since its discovery, the asteroid has warranted international attention and remains the highest asteroid threat on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale – even though there is a nearly 97% chance the asteroid will pass Earth safely in seven years.