Scientists fear Iceland volcano could erupt again in weeks as magma continues to pool underground
In November 2023, Southwestern Iceland was placed on alert for the possibility of a volcanic eruption after tens of thousands of earthquakes shook Grindavik, and massive cracks began to open up on roads across the area.
Drone footage shows bubbling lava flow during Iceland volcanic eruption
Drone footage recorded on Sunday, April 7 shows lava spewing from a volcanic crater on Iceland's Reykjanes peninsula. The volcano eruption is ongoing north of Grindavik. (Video from April 2024)
GRINDAVIK, Iceland – Concerns are growing among scientists in Iceland that a volcano that erupted several times since the end of 2023 could erupt again in weeks, putting the seaside town of Grindavík on alert for potential impacts from lava flows.
The Icelandic Meteorological Office (IMO) said in a recent update that magma has been flowing into the Svartsengi reservoir beneath the Earth’s surface, and has reached the lower limit of magma that was lost during the latest eruption that began at the end of May.
WHAT HAPPENS BEFORE A VOLCANO ERUPTS?
![This image shows lava coming from a fissure that opened during a volcanic eruption near Grindavik in Iceland on Wednesday, May 29, 2024.]()
Image 1 of 23This image shows lava coming from a fissure that opened during a volcanic eruption near Grindavik in Iceland on Wednesday, May 29, 2024. (Birn Oddsson/Iceland Civil Defense)
![This image shows lava coming from a fissure that opened during a volcanic eruption near Grindavik in Iceland on Wednesday, May 29, 2024.]()
Image 2 of 23This image shows lava coming from a fissure that opened during a volcanic eruption near Grindavik in Iceland on Wednesday, May 29, 2024. (Birn Oddsson/Iceland Civil Defense)
![Drone footage recorded on Sunday, April 7 shows lava spewing from a volcanic crater on Iceland's Reykjanes peninsula.]()
Image 3 of 23Drone footage recorded on Sunday, April 7 shows lava spewing from a volcanic crater on Iceland's Reykjanes peninsula. (Hordur Kristleifsson via Storyful)
![Emergency services are seen near to the site of the volcanic eruption on March 17, 2024 in Grindavik, Iceland. The Icelandic Meteorological Office confirmed a volcanic eruption started between Stora Skogfell and Hagafell on Saturday evening, the fourth time since December.]()
Image 4 of 23GRINDAVIK, ICELAND - MARCH 17: Emergency services are seen near to the site of the volcanic eruption on March 17, 2024 in Grindavik, Iceland. The Icelandic Meteorological Office confirmed a volcanic eruption started between Stora Skogfell and Hagafell on Saturday evening, the fourth time since December. A state of emergency has been declared in and around the town of Grindavik and hundreds of holidaymakers have been evacuated from the popular Blue Lagoon spa, which lies a short distance northwest of the site of the volcano. (Photo by Micah Garen/Getty Images) ( )
![Emergency services are seen near to the site of the volcanic eruption on March 17, 2024 in Grindavik, Iceland. The Icelandic Meteorological Office confirmed a volcanic eruption started between Stora Skogfell and Hagafell on Saturday evening, the fourth time since December.]()
Image 5 of 23GRINDAVIK, ICELAND - MARCH 17: Emergency services are seen near to the site of the volcanic eruption on March 17, 2024 in Grindavik, Iceland. The Icelandic Meteorological Office confirmed a volcanic eruption started between Stora Skogfell and Hagafell on Saturday evening, the fourth time since December. A state of emergency has been declared in and around the town of Grindavik and hundreds of holidaymakers have been evacuated from the popular Blue Lagoon spa, which lies a short distance northwest of the site of the volcano. (Photo by Micah Garen/Getty Images) ( )
![The Grindavik, Iceland volcano eruption on March 17, 2024. (Image: Icelandic Met Office)]()
Image 6 of 23The Grindavik, Iceland volcano eruption on March 17, 2024. (Image: Icelandic Met Office) ( )
![Coverage from the volcanic fissure eruption on Iceland's Reykjanes Peninsula.]()
Image 7 of 23Coverage from the volcanic fissure eruption on Iceland's Reykjanes Peninsula. (Icelandic Coast Guard)
![FILE - An image showing the new lava flow in Iceland outside Grindavik.]()
Image 8 of 23FILE - An image showing the new lava flow in Iceland outside Grindavik. (Iceland’s Department of Civil Protection and Emergency Management/Facebook)
![Lava is seen flowing from a volcano in Iceland on Thursday, Feb. 8, 2024.]()
Image 9 of 23Lava is seen flowing from a volcano in Iceland on Thursday, Feb. 8, 2024. (Icelandic Coast Guard/Facebook)
![Lava is seen flowing from a volcano in Iceland on Thursday, Feb. 8, 2024.]()
Image 10 of 23Lava is seen flowing from a volcano in Iceland on Thursday, Feb. 8, 2024. (Icelandic Coast Guard/Facebook)
![An aerial view shows lava after volcano eruption northeast of Sylingarfell, near Grindavik, Reykjanes Peninsula, Iceland early Thursday, February 8, 2024. (Photo by Iceland Civil Defense/Handout/Anadolu via Getty Images)]()
Image 11 of 23An aerial view shows lava after volcano eruption northeast of Sylingarfell, near Grindavik, Reykjanes Peninsula, Iceland early Thursday, February 8, 2024. (Photo by Iceland Civil Defense/Handout/Anadolu via Getty Images) ( )
![An aerial view shows lava after volcano eruption northeast of Sylingarfell, near Grindavik, Reykjanes Peninsula, Iceland early Thursday, February 8, 2024. (Photo by Iceland Civil Defense/Handout/Anadolu via Getty Images)]()
Image 12 of 23An aerial view shows lava after volcano eruption northeast of Sylingarfell, near Grindavik, Reykjanes Peninsula, Iceland early Thursday, February 8, 2024. (Photo by Iceland Civil Defense/Handout/Anadolu via Getty Images) ( )
![An aerial view shows lava after volcano eruption northeast of Sylingarfell, near Grindavik, Reykjanes Peninsula, Iceland early Thursday, February 8, 2024. (Photo by Iceland Civil Defense/Handout/Anadolu via Getty Images)]()
Image 13 of 23An aerial view shows lava after volcano eruption northeast of Sylingarfell, near Grindavik, Reykjanes Peninsula, Iceland early Thursday, February 8, 2024. (Photo by Iceland Civil Defense/Handout/Anadolu via Getty Images) ( )
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Image 14 of 23Lava explosions and billowing smoke are seen near residential buildings in the southwestern Icelandic town of Grindavik after a volcanic eruption on January 14, 2024. Seismic activity had intensified overnight and residents of Grindavik were evacuated, Icelandic public broadcaster RUV reported. This is Iceland's fifth volcanic eruption in two years, the previous one occurring on December 18, 2023 in the same region southwest of the capital Reykjavik. Iceland is home to 33 active volcano systems, the highest number in Europe. (Photo by Halldor KOLBEINS / AFP) (Photo by HALLDOR KOLBEINS/AFP via Getty Images) (HALLDOR KOLBEINS/AFP)
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Image 15 of 23Aerial view taken on January 14, 2024 shows emergency personnel using diggers to build a protective wall trying to prevent flowing lava to reach the centre of the southwestern Icelandic town of Grindavik after a volcaninc eruption. Seismic activity had intensified overnight and residents of Grindavik were evacuated, Icelandic public broadcaster RUV reported. This is Iceland's fifth volcanic eruption in two years, the previous one occurring on December 18, 2023 in the same region southwest of the capital Reykjavik. Iceland is home to 33 active volcano systems, the highest number in Europe. (Photo by Halldor KOLBEINS / AFP) (Photo by HALLDOR KOLBEINS/AFP via Getty Images) (HALLDOR KOLBEINS/AFP)
![FILE - A photo showing the eruption of a volcano outside the town of Grindavik in Iceland on Sunday, Jan. 14, 2024.]()
Image 16 of 23FILE - A photo showing the eruption of a volcano outside the town of Grindavik in Iceland on Sunday, Jan. 14, 2024. (Iceland Department of Civil Protection and Emergency Management/Facebook)
![A photo showing the eruption of a volcano outside the town of Grindavik in Iceland on Sunday, Jan. 14, 2024.]()
Image 17 of 23A photo showing the eruption of a volcano outside the town of Grindavik in Iceland on Sunday, Jan. 14, 2024. (Iceland Department of Civil Protection and Emergency Management/Facebook)
![A photo showing the eruption of a volcano outside the town of Grindavik in Iceland on Sunday, Jan. 14, 2024.]()
Image 18 of 23A photo showing the eruption of a volcano outside the town of Grindavik in Iceland on Sunday, Jan. 14, 2024. (Iceland Department of Civil Protection and Emergency Management/Facebook)
![A photo showing the eruption of a volcano outside the town of Grindavik in Iceland on Sunday, Jan. 14, 2024.]()
Image 19 of 23A photo showing the eruption of a volcano outside the town of Grindavik in Iceland on Sunday, Jan. 14, 2024. (Iceland Department of Civil Protection and Emergency Management/Facebook)
![A photo showing the eruption of a volcano outside the town of Grindavik in Iceland on Sunday, Jan. 14, 2024.]()
Image 20 of 23A photo showing the eruption of a volcano outside the town of Grindavik in Iceland on Sunday, Jan. 14, 2024. (Iceland Department of Civil Protection and Emergency Management/Facebook)
![A photo showing the eruption of a volcano outside the town of Grindavik in Iceland on Sunday, Jan. 14, 2024.]()
Image 21 of 23A photo showing the eruption of a volcano outside the town of Grindavik in Iceland on Sunday, Jan. 14, 2024. (Iceland Department of Civil Protection and Emergency Management/Facebook)
![A photo showing the eruption of a volcano outside the town of Grindavik in Iceland on Sunday, Jan. 14, 2024.]()
Image 22 of 23A photo showing the eruption of a volcano outside the town of Grindavik in Iceland on Sunday, Jan. 14, 2024. (Iceland Department of Civil Protection and Emergency Management/Facebook)
![GRINDAVIK, ICELAND - DECEMBER 19: People view the volcano on the Reykjanes peninsula in south west Iceland which has erupted after weeks of intense earthquake activity/ on December 19, 2023 in Grindavik, Iceland. After weeks of seismic activity around Grindavik that led to the evacuation of some 4,000 residents, a volcano has erupted on the Reykjanes peninsula, with lava bursting from a crack about 3.5km long. (Photo by Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images)]()
Image 23 of 23GRINDAVIK, ICELAND - DECEMBER 19: People view the volcano on the Reykjanes peninsula in south west Iceland which has erupted after weeks of intense earthquake activity/ on December 19, 2023 in Grindavik, Iceland. After weeks of seismic activity around Grindavik that led to the evacuation of some 4,000 residents, a volcano has erupted on the Reykjanes peninsula, with lava bursting from a crack about 3.5km long. (Photo by Jeff J Mitchell/Getty Images) ( )
That lower limit was believed to be about 13 million cubic meters of magma, while the upper limit is about 19 million cubic meters.
"Assuming a similar volume of magma needs to be recharged to build up enough in the system to trigger the next event (dike and/or eruption), geodetic modeling indicates that there is a very high probability that this will occur within the next three weeks," the IMO said.
CAN ONE VOLCANO'S ERUPTION TRIGGER AN ERUPTION AT ANOTHER VOLCANO?
Watch: Aerial video gives powerful look at lava from Iceland volcano blocking road outside Grindavik
Dramatic aerial video recorded in Iceland shows lava from a volcano in Iceland covering a main road leading to and from the evacuated town of Grindavik on Saturday, June 8, 2024.
However, the IMO warns that if a higher volume change is required, then that will be achieved within the next three to four weeks.
The higher volume, 20 million cubic meters of magma, was reached prior to the eruption at the end of May.
Those predictions were based on the assumption that the rate of magma flowing into the reservoir remains consistent as of what was seen on Tuesday.
ICELAND RESIDENT DESCRIBED RELENTLESS EARTHQUAKES, MOMENTS OF PANICKED EVACUATION
Grindavík on alert for potential lava flows
This graphic from the Icelandic Meteorological Office shows the updated hazard map for volcanic unrest in the Grindavik area and remains valid until July 23, 2024.
(Icelandic Meteorological Office)
The seaside town of Grindavík had been evacuated before the first eruption in December, but residents were allowed to return briefly to gather important belongings. But on several occasions those residents were told to flee the area due to a new eruption taking place.
The popular tourist destination Blue Lagoon has also been evacuated several times because of the eruption, forcing visitors to pack up and leave and head for safety.
Now Grindavík has been placed on alert once again, with the town being placed under a "Considerable" risk of a volcanic eruption in the IMO's latest hazard map for volcanic unrest.
Video shows Iceland volcano erupting for fourth time in 3 months
A video recorded from an Iceland Coast Guard helicopter shows the eruption of a volcano near the seaside town of Grindavik. This is the fourth time the volcano has erupted since December. (Video from March 2024)
Scientists say that recent data analysis of fissure openings from previous eruptions showed a systematic movement to the southwest.
"Considering this data and the considerable amount of fault movement within Grindavík since November 2023, the likelihood of lava extrusion in Zone 4 is now considered higher for future eruptions," the IMO said.
The risk in Zone 4, which includes Grindavík, is considered to be higher for future eruptions because of the threat of fissure openings, lava flows and gas pollution.
"This change does not currently affect the overall hazard level in Zone 4, which remains considerable (orange)," the IMO said.
Iceland volcano erupted 5 times since December
Watch: Sirens wail at Iceland's Blue Lagoon before volcano erupts outside Grindavik
Video recorded at Iceland's famous Blue Lagoon shows people evacuating as sirens wail in the distance warning of a volcanic eruption outside the seaside town of Grindavik on Wednesday, May 29, 2024.
In November 2023, Southwestern Iceland was placed on alert for the possibility of a volcanic eruption after tens of thousands of earthquakes shook Grindavík, and massive cracks began to open up on roads across the area.
The first eruption began in December, and several others were reported in the following months. The latest eruption, in May, became the most powerful eruption so far.
Lava shot more than 160 feet into the air and spread out in all directions, covering roads and coming into contact with the defense walls built around the town and important infrastructure to protect it from the advancing lava.