New eruption at Iceland volcano 'highly probable' within weeks, scientists warn
The first eruption in Iceland began in December, and several others were reported in the following months. The latest eruption, in May, became the most powerful eruption so far.
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A pilot flying his drone above a fissure that opened during a volcanic eruption in Iceland on Wednesday shows lava shooting into the air. (Video from May 2024)
GRINDAVIK, Iceland – Scientists say the likelihood of a new eruption at a volcano in southwestern Iceland continues to grow as earthquakes rattle the region and magma pools underground, causing officials to raise the alert level in the seaside town of Grindavík.
The Icelandic Meteorological Office (IMO) said in a recent update that while the earthquake activity in the region has been "relatively low," it has been slowly increasing.
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The Coast Guard flew over Grindavik, Iceland on Monday after the lava from the erupting volcano cooled to see the three homes that were destroyed. (Video from January 2024)
As of Tuesday, the IMO said about 10 small earthquakes were reported over a 24-hour period, with about 90 being reported throughout the week. By comparison, the IMO said more than 50 earthquakes per day were reported ahead of the most recent eruption.
"Over the past few weeks, seismic activity is slowly increasing day by day, in line with the continued accumulation of magma within the Svartsengi crater," the IMO said.
SCIENTISTS FEAR ICELAND VOLCANO COULD ERUPT AGAIN IN WEEKS AS MAGMA CONTINUES TO POOL UNDERGROUND
A graph showing the development of magma accumulation and the estimated total volume change within the Svartsengi magma reservoir since 25 October 2023, which includes episodes of volume loss from the reservoir (during diking events) and volume recharge following these events.
(Icelandic Meteorological Office)
Scientists say that ground deformation in the region has continued, with magma accumulating under Svartsengi at a steady rate in recent weeks.
"Based on the volume loss observed during the diking on May 29, and continued subsidence during the first week of the May-June eruption, it is estimated that a volume between 13 to 19 million cubic meters needs to be recharged before the next event is triggered," the IMO said.
CAN ONE VOLCANO'S ERUPTION TRIGGER AN ERUPTION AT ANOTHER VOLCANO?
The graph shows the estimated volume change related to magma accumulation within the Svartsengi reservoir between dike intrusions since November 2023.
(Icelandic Meteorological Office)
According to calculations, the total recharge volume is likely to approach 16 million cubic meters in the coming days.
The IMO said there is some uncertainty in the calculations, but scientists believe a new magma intrusion and eruption is "considered highly probable within the next two to three weeks."
ICELAND RESIDENT DESCRIBED RELENTLESS EARTHQUAKES, MOMENTS OF PANICKED EVACUATION
Hazard levels raised across southwestern Iceland
This graphic shows areas where the volcanic threat is highest in southwestern Iceland.
(Icelandic Meteorological Office)
The IMO said it has updated the hazard assessment considering the likelihood of new magma intrusion and eruption in the coming weeks, and all zones except one have been raised.
This includes Grindavík, which could see sinkholes, poisonous gas and lava flows if the volcano were to erupt.
The IMO offered two types of scenarios if an eruption were to occur.
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Dramatic video shows homes being destroyed by a lava flow in the town of Grindavik in Iceland after a volcano erupted early Sunday morning. (Video from January 2024)
If an eruption began between Stóra-Skógfell and Sundhnúkur, there may only be about 30 minutes of warning time, and lava could reach roads in the area within 1-3 hours.
A second scenario would be more dangerous for Grindavík, and scientists fear lava could cover escape routes on land. Lava could also reach the ocean east of Grindavík, which could be extremely dangerous.
"If lava reaches the sea, it could cause localized hazards due to rapid cooling of the lava," the IMO said. "Initially, there would be a hazard due to ash and gas formation, primarily hydrochloric acid."
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The Icelandic Coast Guard provided video of an up-close look at a volcano that erupted near the town of Grindavik on Monday night. (Video from December 2023)
In areas within about 1,600 feet from where the lava enters the ocean, "conditions could be life-threatening."
The IMO said that there is also the possibility that lava could erupt within Grindavík.
"The scenarios we present (Tuesday) are based on the latest data and analysis, and they raise concerns that lava could reach within the protective barriers at Grindavík," said Matthew J. Roberts, Managing Director of the Service and Research Division at the Icelandic Meteorological Office. "We must, therefore, be prepared for the possibility that lava erupting from a vent north of the protective barriers above the town could flow into the fissure system south of Hagafell and lead the lava flow within the town limits."
Iceland volcano erupted 5 times since December
Watch: Drone video provides dramatic image of volcanic eruption in Iceland
Drone video recorded in Iceland shows the power of a volcano that erupted for the third time in two months on Thursday, Feb. 8, 2024.
In November 2023, southwestern Iceland was placed on alert for the possibility of a volcanic eruption after tens of thousands of earthquakes shook Grindavík, and massive cracks began to open up on roads across the area.
The first eruption began in December, and several others were reported in the following months. The latest eruption, in May, became the most powerful eruption so far.
Lava shot more than 160 feet into the air and spread out in all directions, covering roads and coming into contact with the defense walls built around the town and important infrastructure to protect it from the advancing lava.