How accurate is Punxsutawney Phil?
Groundhog Day has been celebrating America’s favorite rodent prognosticator for more than 130 years.
Why is Groundhog Day celebrated every year on February 2?
Groundhog Day is a beloved tradition for many as they wait to see how long winter will last. As the legend goes, if Punxsutawney Phil sees his shadow, he predicts six more weeks of winter. If he doesn't, it's a forecast of an early spring. FOX News Senior Meteorologist Janice Dean has more from Pennsylvania.
PUNXSUTAWNEY, Pa. - Every Feb. 2, America turns to the town of Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, for a sliver of hope that the cold winter will end sooner rather than later.
That is where a groundhog named Punxsutawney Phil is roused from a stump on Gobbler’s Knob each year. Legend has it that if the large rodent sees his shadow, six more weeks of winter weather are ahead. If not, spring will arrive early.
DID PHIL SEE HIS SHADOW IN 2024?
Learning about the tradition of Groundhog Day
Ike English, Director at Dauset Trails in Jackson, GA, joined FOX Weather Sunrise to talk about the history and significance of Groundhog Day. General Beauregard Lee is the Groundhog in Jackson, GA. (Video from February 2022)
The animal prognosticator has been at it since the 1880s. Records kept by the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club show Phil has predicted 108 continued winters and only 21 early springs as of 2024. According to the Stormfax Almanac, that works out to a 39% accuracy rate for Phil.
In the near term, the groundhog’s accuracy rate is slightly worse. According to the NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information, Phil has been right about 30% of the time over the past decade.
ANIMALS OTHER THAN PUNXSUTAWNEY PHIL THAT WILL TRY TO PREDICT END OF WINTER ON GROUNDHOG DAY
In 2021, Phil predicted more winter. According to NOAA, his forecast was about half right. February 2021 was the coldest since 1989, but March turned out to be warmer than average.
The furry forecaster saw his shadow again in 2022, which meant another prediction of a continued winter. NOAA experts said he again missed the mark. While February was slightly colder than average, March's temperatures were much warmer than average.
Phil's prediction of another long winter in 2023 was half-correct, according to NOAA. The contiguous U.S. experienced above-average temperatures in February, but slightly below-average temperatures in March.