Hurricanes' impact on elections
Hurricane season in the Atlantic basin runs from June 1 to November 30, with most activity occurring from mid-August to mid-October. Water temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea are usually warmest in late August and early September.
A look at Election Day hurricanes of the past
Election Day falls within hurricane season. How many hurricanes have actually happened on a presidential election day in the United States? Only 1, in 1904.
Since the nation’s founding in 1776, tropical cyclones have posed challenges to elections, influencing voter sentiments and occasionally altering election dates.
While few cyclones have impacted elections held in November, their effects have led to changes weeks and even months ahead of election day.
Two of the more notable cyclones include Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and Hurricane Sandy in 2012, which caused billions of dollars in damage.
Both cyclones prompted officials to take emergency measures, and in the case of Katrina, forced the postponement of elections.
The official hurricane season for the Atlantic Basin (the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico) is from June 1 to Nov. 30. As seen in the graph above, the peak of the season is Sept. 10. However, deadly hurricanes can occur anytime in the hurricane season.
(NOAA/NHC / FOX Weather)
Outside of the impact zone, the state of the responses has served as a galvanizing force among likely voters.
For instance, in 1992, the FEMA response to Hurricane Andrew in South Florida was largely viewed as inadequate by the public, putting the state’s 25 electoral votes up for grabs.
Similarly, in 2012, Superstorm Sandy swept through the eastern U.S., impacting the reelection of President Barack Obama.
At that time, national exit polling indicated that the hurricane response was an important factor for 15% of voters.
In 2024, Hurricane Helene affected voters in several southern swing states, but the impacts on the electorate will likely take months, if not longer, to accurately determine, according to political experts.
Here’s a look at some of the recent hurricanes that have impacted U.S. elections.
WEATHER CAN IMPACT VOTER TURNOUT
Hurricane Nicole – November 2022
Nicole is known for being only the third hurricane in November to make landfall in the Sunshine State.
The cyclone developed on Nov. 7 and made landfall only three days later on Nov. 10.
The National Hurricane Center issued a Hurricane Warning for much of Florida’s east coast on election day ahead of the cyclone’s impacts.
Despite alerts and evacuation notices, most of the effects occurred after voting, limiting impacts on the electoral process.
At least 11 deaths were attributed to the hurricane in the Caribbean and Florida, and damage was estimated to be around $1 billion.
Hurricane Nicole 2022 satellite animation
Hurricane Dorian – September 2019
A special election to fill the vacancy in North Carolina's 9th congressional district was held just days after Hurricane Dorian made landfall near Cape Hatteras as a Category 2 cyclone.
The district covers a region south of Raleigh and east of Charlotte and was impacted by the outer fringes of the hurricane.
After devastating the Bahamas, the hurricane made landfall during the morning of Friday, Sept. 6.
Due to the impacts, the state mandated additional early voting hours to allow the opportunity for affected voters to cast their ballots ahead of the Sept. 10 election day.
Hurricane Dorian track 2019
(FOX Weather)
HOW THE WEATHER CAN INFLUENCE BABY NAMES
Hurricane Florence – September 2018
The Category 1 hurricane impacted North Carolina and South Carolina in mid-September, leading to concerns about early voting during the midterm elections.
The N.C. State Board office reported sending out absentee ballots for counties that were unable to do so because of flooding and utility outages.
The storm system set South Carolina’s record for being the rainiest cyclone, dropping some 35.93 inches over the eastern part of the state.
Florence’s estimated damage was more than $24 million across three southeastern states.
The cone of uncertainty for Hurricane Florence in 2018 is seen in this graphic.
(NHC)
HURRICANE ANDREW TIMELINE: ON THIS DAY, AUGUST 24, 1992
Hurricane Sandy – November 2012
The superstorm made landfall near Atlantic City, New Jersey, just more than a week before the presidential election on Nov. 6, 2012.
The storm system had the wind power of a Category 1 hurricane with a maximum storm surge of around 13 feet.
Polling precincts in both New York and New Jersey experienced significant disruptions, but authorities enacted emergency provisions to ease impacts on voters.
In addition to the establishment of temporary polling places, both New York and New Jersey extended the deadline for requesting absentee ballots.
Authorities in the Garden State even allowed some affected voters to request, receive and submit ballots by fax or email.
According to a Congressional Research Report, turnout was down in the region impacted by Sandy, but it is unclear whether the lack of voter participation was solely a result of the historic storm system.
Superstorm Sandy made deadly onslaught on US East Coast 12 years ago
It’s been 12 years since Superstorm Sandy devastated the mid-Atlantic and parts of the Northeast. Sandy was a late-season storm that began in the Caribbean before targeting the U.S., making landfall in New Jersey as a post-tropical cyclone.
LOOK BACK: LEGACY OF HURRICANE KATRINA 19 YEARS LATER
Hurricane Katrina - August 2005
The deadliest hurricane to impact the Lower 48 during the modern era made landfall along the northern Gulf Coast as a powerful Category 3 on Aug. 29.
An estimated 1,392 people were killed, and damage was estimated to be around $125 billion.
More than half a million residents in southeastern Louisiana were reported to be displaced, putting stress on the electoral system.
In the wake of Hurricane Katrina, several primary elections were postponed, and even with the changes in dates, precincts reported significant declines in participation.
The historical hurricane track of Katrina in 2005.
(NOAA, Office for Coastal Management, DigitalCoast)