Atlantic hurricane season still dangerous to US in October
The US has been impacted by 20 landfalling hurricanes during the month of October since 1950. Tropical activity shifts west as we progress through October.
Atlantic Basin typically remains active during month of October
October ranks as the third-most-active month (behind September and August) for tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin, typically producing about two named storms each year, one of which becomes a hurricane.
Even though the climatological peak of hurricane season – Sept. 10 – was weeks ago, residents living along the East and Gulf coasts of the U.S. shouldn't let their guard down in October.
October ranks as the third-most-active month (behind September and August) for tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin, typically producing about two named storms each year, one of which becomes a hurricane. And every other October, on average, one of those hurricanes intensifies into a "major hurricane," achieving Category 3 or higher intensity on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
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On average, about one-quarter of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity remains from Oct. 3 through the end of the Atlantic hurricane season on Nov. 30.
(FOX Weather)
While most areas of the Atlantic Basin remain open for development in October, a lot of the tropical activity tends to shift westward as the disturbances that frequently roll off Africa during the peak of hurricane season begin to fade away. And any disturbances that do emerge off the coast of Africa in October will often run into hostile atmospheric conditions such as dry air and strong upper-level winds over the waters of the eastern tropical Atlantic.
Tropical activity shifts west through October.
(FOX Weather)
So, in October, we actually look closer to home for the best chances of tropical development.
The western Caribbean Sea, the eastern Gulf of Mexico and the western and central Atlantic Ocean are the areas where you'll most likely find a tropical storm or hurricane in October. That means parts of the East and Gulf coasts of the U.S. remain at risk of a landfalling storm to occur.
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This map shows where tropical cyclone activity tends to occur during October. The data are shown as the combined number of tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes whose centers pass within 125 miles of a point on the map during a 100-year period. The analysis is based on data from the 72-year period from 1950 to 2021 but normalized to 100 years.
(FOX Weather)
Between 1950 and 2022, the U.S. was impacted by 20 landfalling hurricanes during the month of October, according to NOAA's Hurricane Research Division. Of course, that doesn't include Superstorm Sandy since the former hurricane had lost its tropical characteristics before making landfall near Atlantic City, New Jersey, on Oct. 29, 2012.
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File: Workers prepare to remove the Star Jet roller coaster that has been in the ocean for six months after the Casino Pier is sat on collapsed when Superstorm Sandy hit, May 14, 2013 in Seaside Heights, New Jersey.
(Mark Wilson / Getty Images)
Since 2016 alone, five October hurricanes have made landfall in the U.S., including Matthew (2016), Nate (2017), Michael (2018), Delta (2020) and Zeta (2020). 2021 was the first time since 2018 that the U.S. wasn't struck by a hurricane in October.
More hurricanes have impacted South Florida in October than any other month. Through 2021, 26 October hurricanes had passed within 100 nautical miles of Miami since recordkeeping began in 1851, according to NOAA's Historical Hurricane Tracks.
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Hurricane Wilma of 2005 holds the record for being the strongest hurricane on record in the Atlantic basin.
(NOAA / NOAA)
By November, however, the Atlantic typically quiets down for the final month of hurricane season, which ends on Nov. 30.
NOAA's data indicate that only five hurricanes have ever made a U.S. landfall in November. Hurricane Kate in 1985 became the nation's latest-in-season landfalling hurricane when it crashed ashore at Category 2 intensity on the evening of Nov. 21 near Mexico Beach, Florida.