Was Punxsutawney Phil's Groundhog Day prediction right?

Name: Learning about the tradition of Groundhog Day
Uploaded: 2022-02-01T10:57:33-05:00
Duration: 2 min 26 s
Description: Ike English, Director at Dauset Trails in Jackson, GA, joined FOX Weather Sunrise to talk about the history and significance of Groundhog Day. General Beauregard Lee is the Groundhog in Jackson, GA.

Punxsutawney Phil predicts 6 more weeks of winter

It was an exciting day for tens of thousands of people who descended upon a small Pennsylvania town to see the famous Punxsutawney Phil make his annual prediction as to when spring will arrive. News Senior Meteorologist Janice Dean was in Punxsutawney on Sunday and spoke with excited spectators as well as Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro about the event that draws in people from around the world.

PUNXSUTAWNEY, Pa. - It's been six weeks since Groundhog Day 2025 and after a careful and detailed analysis, FOX Weather has determined that Punxsutawney Phil was once again incorrect in predicting six more weeks of winter weather.

Based on data from NOAA, the Lower 48 was about 0.4°F warmer than average in the six weeks following Groundhog Day this year. That's despite a series of coast-to-coast storms that brought blizzard conditions to swathes of the central U.S.

According to local folklore, if Phil emerges from his den on Feb. 2 and sees his shadow, it means six more weeks of wintry weather, whereas no shadow would portend an early spring.

The groundhog failed to build on his correct prediction of an early spring in 2024, and has only been correct three times within the last 11 years, according to NOAA, using average national temperature in the 6 weeks since as the measuring stick.

WHY IS GROUNDHOG DAY CELEBRATED EVERY YEAR ON FEB. 2?

PENNSYLVANIA, UNITED STATES - FEBRUARY 02: Groundhog Club handler A.J. Dereume holds Punxsutawney Phil, the weather prognosticating groundhog, during the 139th celebration of Groundhog Day on Gobbler's Knob in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania on February 2, 2025. Phil's handlers said that the groundhog has forecast six more weeks of winter. (Photo by Mostafa Bassim/Anadolu)

NEW YORK, NY - FEBRUARY 02: Groundhog Staten Island Chuck is seen during the unveiling of the new interactive exhibit featuring original Times Square New Year's Eve Centennial Ball at Ripley's Believe It or Not on February 2, 2017 in New York City. (Photo by John Lamparski/WireImage)

PUNXSUTAWNEY, PENNSYLVANIA - FEBRUARY 2: Groundhog handler AJ Dereume holds Punxsutawney Phil after he saw his shadow predicting 6 more weeks of winter during the 139th annual Groundhog Day festivities on Friday February 2, 2025 in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania. Groundhog Day is a popular tradition in the United States and Canada. If Punxsutawney Phil sees his shadow he regards it as an omen of six more weeks of bad weather and returns to his den. Early spring arrives if he does not see his shadow, causing Phil to remain above ground. (Photo by Jeff Swensen)

PUNXSUTAWNEY, PENNSYLVANIA - FEBRUARY 2: Groundhog handler AJ Dereume holds Punxsutawney Phil after he saw his shadow predicting 6 more weeks of winter during the 139th annual Groundhog Day festivities on February 2, 2025 in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania. Groundhog Day is a popular tradition in the United States and Canada. If Punxsutawney Phil sees his shadow he regards it as an omen of six more weeks of bad weather and returns to his den. Early spring arrives if he does not see his shadow, causing Phil to remain above ground. (Photo by Jeff Swensen/Getty Images) ( )

PUNXSUTAWNEY, PENNSYLVANIA - FEBRUARY 2: Punxsutawney Phil takes a break to greet the public after he saw his shadow predicting 6 more weeks of winter during the 139th annual Groundhog Day festivities on February 2, 2025 in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania. Groundhog Day is a popular tradition in the United States and Canada. If Punxsutawney Phil sees his shadow he regards it as an omen of six more weeks of bad weather and returns to his den. Early spring arrives if he does not see his shadow, causing Phil to remain above ground. (Photo by Jeff Swensen/Getty Images) ( )

PENNSYLVANIA, UNITED STATES - FEBRUARY 02: Punxsutawney Phil, the weather prognosticating groundhog,sits in his carrier following the 139th celebration of Groundhog Day on Gobbler's Knob in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania on February 2, 2025.Phil's handlers said that the groundhog has forecast six more weeks of winter. (Photo by Mostafa Bassim/Anadolu via Getty Images) ( )

FILE - Lincoln, MA - February 2: On Climate Action Day, Ms. G, the Official Groundhog of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, returned (as a virtual event) to Mass Audubons Drumlin Farm Wildlife Sanctuary to search for her shadow in Lincoln, MA on Feb. 2, 2022. Ms. G. made her annual prognostication for when spring will arrive. Folklore has it that if she sees her shadow, well be looking at six more weeks of winter; if not, an early spring is in the works. This year she predicted an early spring. (Photo by Suzanne Kreiter/The Boston Globe via Getty Images) ( )

Above average temperatures despite outbreak arctic temperatures and several blizzards

National temperatures still reached nearly half a degree above average in the six weeks following Groundhog Day, even with a polar air plunge from Canada invading much of the U.S. during the third and fourth weeks of February.

Swaths of America also saw blizzard conditions on the backside of several coast-to-coast storms over the past two weeks.

So, it's understandable if supporters of Punxsutawney Phil say it hasn't exactly felt like spring for many.

However, most of the country has said goodbye to winter, including 235 million people who will see temperatures 10–20 degrees above normal this week.

LA NINA IS FADING, BRINGING SPRING TEMPERATURE SPLIT WITH VARYING RAIN PATTERNS: NOAA

Learning about the tradition of Groundhog Day

Ike English, Director at Dauset Trails in Jackson, GA, joined FOX Weather Sunrise to talk about the history and significance of Groundhog Day. General Beauregard Lee is the Groundhog in Jackson, GA.

Punxsutawney Phil was right just 27% of the time over last 11 years

The Groundhog Day tradition that began with German settlers in Pennsylvania, based on a German custom involving a hedgehog seeing its shadow. Since there were no hedgehogs in America, German immigrants used native hedgehogs instead, according to Punxsutawney Groundhog Club.

The club said the current tradition in Punxsutawney started in 1887, which was the first officially documented trek to Gobbler's Knob, where the ceremony is held.

Currently, a group referred to as "the Inner Circle" announces to the world whether Phil has seen his shadow.

According to data from NOAA, Phil has predicted more winter 108 times, and an early spring just 20 times, with 10 years without recorded data.

Phil got it right last year in 2024, calling for an early spring. But over the last 11 years, NOAA says the groundhog has been correct only two other times: 2020 and 2015, resulting in an accuracy rate of 27.3%.

Punxsutawney Phil's prediction record for last 10 years (FOX Weather)

In fairness to Phil, climatology isn't for the faint of heart.

"Predicting the arrival of springtime for an entire country – especially one with varied regional climates like the United States – isn’t easy," wrote NOAA in an article on Groundhog Day weather history.

Batting .273 is solid for a baseball player, but as far as weather predictions go, not so much.

DID PUNXSUTAWNEY PHIL SEE HIS SHADOW OR IS AN EARLY SPRING ON THE WAY?

The Groundhog Day verdict is in: Was Punxsutawney Phil right?

It's been six weeks since Groundhog Day 2025 and FOX Weather crunched the numbers to see if the weather-predicting rodent, Punxsutawney Phil, was right.

Punxsutawney Phil predicts 6 more weeks of winter

Above average temperatures despite outbreak arctic temperatures and several blizzards

Learning about the tradition of Groundhog Day

Punxsutawney Phil was right just 27% of the time over last 11 years