How accurate are Punxsutawney Phil's Groundhog Day predictions?
Prognosticator of prognosticator's or pretender?
Why is Groundhog Day celebrated every year on February 2?
Groundhog Day is a beloved tradition for many as they wait to see how long winter will last. As the legend goes, if Punxsutawney Phil sees his shadow, he predicts six more weeks of winter. If he doesn't, it's a forecast of an early spring. FOX News Senior Meteorologist Janice Dean has more from Pennsylvania.
PUNXSUTAWNEY, Penn. - Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania is the Mecca for those around the country celebrating Groundhog Day. Every year, on Feb. 2, tens of thousands of people flock to this small town of less than 6,000 people some 80 miles northeast of Pittsburgh, to see whether the town's rodent meteorologist in-residence will predict an early spring or more cold temperatures.
That meteorologist is a groundhog named Phil, who last year welcomed two babies into the weather prediction family.
According to folklore, if Phil emerges from his den on Feb. 2 and sees his shadow, it means six more weeks of inclement weather.
It's a tradition that began with German settlers in Pennsylvania, based on a German custom involving a hedgehog seeing its shadow. Since there were no hedgehogs in America, German immigrants used native hedgehogs instead, according to Punxsutawney Groundhog Club.
The club said the current tradition in Punxsutawney started in 1887, which was the first officially documented trek to Gobbler's Knob, where the ceremony is held.
Currently, a group referred to as "the Inner Circle" announces to the world whether Phil has seen his shadow.
So, how accurate is Punxsutawney Phil? Records show that Phil is not quite the prognosticator of prognosticators that legends purport him to be.
OTHER ANIMALS THAT WEIGH IN ON THE FORECAST ON GROUNDHOG DAY
Will Punxsutawney Phil see his shadow this year?
FOX Weather takes a look at the chances of Punxsutawney Phil seeing his shadow when he emerges from his burrow in Pennsylvania on Groundhog Day on Sunday.
Punxsutawney Phil was right just 30% of the time over last 10 years
In determining the accuracy of Punxsutawney Phil, NOAA compared national temperatures in the six weeks after Feb. 2 over the last 10 years.
According to the data, Phil got it right last year in 2024, calling for an early spring. But over the last 10 years, the groundhog has been correct only two other times: 2020 and 2015, resulting in an accuracy rate of 30%.
In fairness to Phil, climatology isn't for the faint of heart.
"Predicting the arrival of springtime for an entire country—especially one with varied regional climates like the United States—isn’t easy," wrote NOAA in an article on Groundhog Day weather history.
According to NOAA since 1887, Phil has predicted more winter 107 times, and an early spring just 20 times, with 10 years without recorded data.
The Stormfax Almanac website, which claims to have tracked Phil's predictions since 1887, found that Punxsutawney Phil's overall accuracy to be 39%.
If he was a baseball player he'd be a Hall of Famer--but as far as weather predictions go, not so much.
WILL PUNXSUTAWNEY PHIL SEE HIS SHADOW?
(FOX Weather)
Will Punxsutawney Phil be right this year?
As for 2025, the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction center is forecasting above average temperatures across the southern part of the country in the week after Groundhog Day, while average and slightly colder than average temperatures will stick around for the northern tier.
February is also bringing a weather pattern change. According to the FOX Forecast Center, a westward shift in the jet stream will allow warmer temperatures from the Gulf to spread across the eastern half of the country.
(FOX Weather)
Could this mean that Punxsutawney Phil will not see his shadow on Sunday? We will find out.
For its part, the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club calls the festivities, "A day to take everything a little less seriously, and break up the winter monotony."
FOX Weather will have full coverage of the Groundhog Day ceremony starting Sunday at 6 a.m. EST.