How accurate are Punxsutawney Phil's Groundhog Day predictions?
Will Punxsutawney Phil be right in 2025? The groundhog emerged from his winter slumber on Sunday morning and saw his shadow. As the legend goes, Phil's prognostication indicates Americans are in for six more weeks of winter.
Punxsutawney Phil predicts 6 more weeks of winter
It was an exciting day for tens of thousands of people who descended upon a small Pennsylvania town to see the famous Punxsutawney Phil make his annual prediction as to when spring will arrive. News Senior Meteorologist Janice Dean was in Punxsutawney on Sunday and spoke with excited spectators as well as Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro about the event that draws in people from around the world.
PUNXSUTAWNEY, Penn. – Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania is the Mecca for those around the country celebrating Groundhog Day. Every year, on Feb. 2, tens of thousands of people flock to this small town of less than 6,000 people some 80 miles northeast of Pittsburgh, to see whether the town's rodent meteorologist in-residence will predict an early spring or more cold temperatures.
That meteorologist is a groundhog named Phil, who last year welcomed two babies into the weather prediction family.
![PUNXSUTAWNEY, PENNSYLVANIA - FEBRUARY 2: Punxsutawney Phil takes a break to greet the public after he saw his shadow predicting 6 more weeks of winter during the 139th annual Groundhog Day festivities on February 2, 2025 in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania. Groundhog Day is a popular tradition in the United States and Canada. If Punxsutawney Phil sees his shadow he regards it as an omen of six more weeks of bad weather and returns to his den. Early spring arrives if he does not see his shadow, causing Phil to remain above ground. (Photo by Jeff Swensen/Getty Images)]()
Image 1 of 9PUNXSUTAWNEY, PENNSYLVANIA - FEBRUARY 2: Punxsutawney Phil takes a break to greet the public after he saw his shadow predicting 6 more weeks of winter during the 139th annual Groundhog Day festivities on February 2, 2025 in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania. Groundhog Day is a popular tradition in the United States and Canada. If Punxsutawney Phil sees his shadow he regards it as an omen of six more weeks of bad weather and returns to his den. Early spring arrives if he does not see his shadow, causing Phil to remain above ground. (Photo by Jeff Swensen/Getty Images) ( )
![PUNXSUTAWNEY, PENNSYLVANIA - FEBRUARY 2: Groundhog handler AJ Dereume holds Punxsutawney Phil after he saw his shadow predicting 6 more weeks of winter during the 139th annual Groundhog Day festivities on February 2, 2025 in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania. Groundhog Day is a popular tradition in the United States and Canada. If Punxsutawney Phil sees his shadow he regards it as an omen of six more weeks of bad weather and returns to his den. Early spring arrives if he does not see his shadow, causing Phil to remain above ground. (Photo by Jeff Swensen/Getty Images)]()
Image 2 of 9PUNXSUTAWNEY, PENNSYLVANIA - FEBRUARY 2: Groundhog handler AJ Dereume holds Punxsutawney Phil after he saw his shadow predicting 6 more weeks of winter during the 139th annual Groundhog Day festivities on February 2, 2025 in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania. Groundhog Day is a popular tradition in the United States and Canada. If Punxsutawney Phil sees his shadow he regards it as an omen of six more weeks of bad weather and returns to his den. Early spring arrives if he does not see his shadow, causing Phil to remain above ground. (Photo by Jeff Swensen/Getty Images) ( )
![PUNXSUTAWNEY, PENNSYLVANIA - FEBRUARY 2: Punxsutawney Phil takes a break to greet the public after he saw his shadow predicting 6 more weeks of winter during the 139th annual Groundhog Day festivities on February 2, 2025 in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania. Groundhog Day is a popular tradition in the United States and Canada. If Punxsutawney Phil sees his shadow he regards it as an omen of six more weeks of bad weather and returns to his den. Early spring arrives if he does not see his shadow, causing Phil to remain above ground. (Photo by Jeff Swensen/Getty Images)]()
Image 3 of 9PUNXSUTAWNEY, PENNSYLVANIA - FEBRUARY 2: Punxsutawney Phil takes a break to greet the public after he saw his shadow predicting 6 more weeks of winter during the 139th annual Groundhog Day festivities on February 2, 2025 in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania. Groundhog Day is a popular tradition in the United States and Canada. If Punxsutawney Phil sees his shadow he regards it as an omen of six more weeks of bad weather and returns to his den. Early spring arrives if he does not see his shadow, causing Phil to remain above ground. (Photo by Jeff Swensen/Getty Images) ( )
![PENNSYLVANIA, UNITED STATES - FEBRUARY 02: Punxsutawney Phil, the weather prognosticating groundhog,sits in his carrier following the 139th celebration of Groundhog Day on Gobbler's Knob in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania on February 2, 2025.Phil's handlers said that the groundhog has forecast six more weeks of winter. (Photo by Mostafa Bassim/Anadolu via Getty Images)]()
Image 4 of 9PENNSYLVANIA, UNITED STATES - FEBRUARY 02: Punxsutawney Phil, the weather prognosticating groundhog,sits in his carrier following the 139th celebration of Groundhog Day on Gobbler's Knob in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania on February 2, 2025.Phil's handlers said that the groundhog has forecast six more weeks of winter. (Photo by Mostafa Bassim/Anadolu via Getty Images) ( )
![PENNSYLVANIA, UNITED STATES - FEBRUARY 02: Groundhog Club handler A.J. Dereume holds Punxsutawney Phil, the weather prognosticating groundhog, during the 139th celebration of Groundhog Day on Gobbler's Knob in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania on February 2, 2025. Phil's handlers said that the groundhog has forecast six more weeks of winter. (Photo by Mostafa Bassim/Anadolu via Getty Images)]()
Image 5 of 9PENNSYLVANIA, UNITED STATES - FEBRUARY 02: Groundhog Club handler A.J. Dereume holds Punxsutawney Phil, the weather prognosticating groundhog, during the 139th celebration of Groundhog Day on Gobbler's Knob in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania on February 2, 2025. Phil's handlers said that the groundhog has forecast six more weeks of winter. (Photo by Mostafa Bassim/Anadolu via Getty Images) ( )
![PENNSYLVANIA, UNITED STATES - FEBRUARY 02: Groundhog Club handler A.J. Dereume holds Punxsutawney Phil, the weather prognosticating groundhog, during the 139th celebration of Groundhog Day on Gobbler's Knob in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania on February 2, 2025. Phil's handlers said that the groundhog has forecast six more weeks of winter. (Photo by Mostafa Bassim/Anadolu via Getty Images)]()
Image 6 of 9PENNSYLVANIA, UNITED STATES - FEBRUARY 02: Groundhog Club handler A.J. Dereume holds Punxsutawney Phil, the weather prognosticating groundhog, during the 139th celebration of Groundhog Day on Gobbler's Knob in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania on February 2, 2025. Phil's handlers said that the groundhog has forecast six more weeks of winter. (Photo by Mostafa Bassim/Anadolu via Getty Images) ( )
![PENNSYLVANIA, UNITED STATES - FEBRUARY 02: Groundhog Club handler A.J. Dereume holds Punxsutawney Phil, the weather prognosticating groundhog, during the 139th celebration of Groundhog Day on Gobbler's Knob in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania on February 2, 2025. Phil's handlers said that the groundhog has forecast six more weeks of winter. (Photo by Mostafa Bassim/Anadolu via Getty Images)]()
Image 7 of 9PENNSYLVANIA, UNITED STATES - FEBRUARY 02: Groundhog Club handler A.J. Dereume holds Punxsutawney Phil, the weather prognosticating groundhog, during the 139th celebration of Groundhog Day on Gobbler's Knob in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania on February 2, 2025. Phil's handlers said that the groundhog has forecast six more weeks of winter. (Photo by Mostafa Bassim/Anadolu via Getty Images) ( )
![PENNSYLVANIA, UNITED STATES - FEBRUARY 02: Groundhog Club handler A.J. Dereume holds Punxsutawney Phil, the weather prognosticating groundhog, during the 139th celebration of Groundhog Day on Gobbler's Knob in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania on February 2, 2025. Phil's handlers said that the groundhog has forecast six more weeks of winter. (Photo by Mostafa Bassim/Anadolu via Getty Images)]()
Image 8 of 9PENNSYLVANIA, UNITED STATES - FEBRUARY 02: Groundhog Club handler A.J. Dereume holds Punxsutawney Phil, the weather prognosticating groundhog, during the 139th celebration of Groundhog Day on Gobbler's Knob in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania on February 2, 2025. Phil's handlers said that the groundhog has forecast six more weeks of winter. (Photo by Mostafa Bassim/Anadolu via Getty Images) ( )
![PENNSYLVANIA, UNITED STATES - FEBRUARY 02: Groundhog Club handler A.J. Dereume holds Punxsutawney Phil, the weather prognosticating groundhog, during the 139th celebration of Groundhog Day on Gobbler's Knob in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania on February 2, 2025. Phil's handlers said that the groundhog has forecast six more weeks of winter. (Photo by Mostafa Bassim/Anadolu via Getty Images)]()
Image 9 of 9PENNSYLVANIA, UNITED STATES - FEBRUARY 02: Groundhog Club handler A.J. Dereume holds Punxsutawney Phil, the weather prognosticating groundhog, during the 139th celebration of Groundhog Day on Gobbler's Knob in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania on February 2, 2025. Phil's handlers said that the groundhog has forecast six more weeks of winter. (Photo by Mostafa Bassim/Anadolu via Getty Images) ( )
According to folklore, if Phil emerges from his den on Feb. 2 and sees his shadow, it means six more weeks of inclement weather.
It's a tradition that began with German settlers in Pennsylvania, based on a German custom involving a hedgehog seeing its shadow. Since there were no hedgehogs in America, German immigrants used native hedgehogs instead, according to Punxsutawney Groundhog Club.
The club said the current tradition in Punxsutawney started in 1887, which was the first officially documented trek to Gobbler's Knob, where the ceremony is held.
Currently, a group referred to as "the Inner Circle" announces to the world whether Phil has seen his shadow.
So, how accurate is Punxsutawney Phil? Records show that Phil is not quite the prognosticator of prognosticators that legends purport him to be.
OTHER ANIMALS THAT WEIGH IN ON THE FORECAST ON GROUNDHOG DAY
Punxsutawney Phil was right just 30% of the time over last 10 years
Will he or won't he? Thousands await Punxsutawney Phil's prediction
Will he or won’t he? We’re getting closer to the moment when Punxsutawney Phil will offer up his prediction as to when spring will arrive. FOX News Senior Meteorologist Janice Dean is there speaking with the excited crowd to get their thoughts on the big event.
In determining the accuracy of Punxsutawney Phil, NOAA compared national temperatures in the six weeks after Feb. 2 over the last 10 years.
According to the data, Phil got it right last year in 2024, calling for an early spring. But over the last 10 years, the groundhog has been correct only two other times: 2020 and 2015, resulting in an accuracy rate of 30%.
In fairness to Phil, climatology isn't for the faint of heart.
"Predicting the arrival of springtime for an entire country – especially one with varied regional climates like the United States – isn’t easy," wrote NOAA in an article on Groundhog Day weather history.
According to NOAA since 1887, Phil has predicted more winter 107 times, and an early spring just 20 times, with 10 years without recorded data.
The Stormfax Almanac website, which claims to have tracked Phil's predictions since 1887, found that Punxsutawney Phil's overall accuracy to be 39%.
If he was a baseball player, he'd be a Hall of Famer – but as far as weather predictions go, not so much.
DID PUNXSUTAWNEY PHIL SEE HIS SHADOW OR IS AN EARLY SPRING ON THE WAY?
(FOX Weather)
Will Punxsutawney Phil be right this year?
As for 2025, Punxsutawney Phil emerged from his winter slumber on Sunday morning and saw his shadow. As the legend goes, Phil's prognostication indicates Americans are in for six more weeks of winter.
The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center is forecasting above-average temperatures across the southern part of the country in its 6- to 10-day temperature outlook, while average and slightly colder-than-average temperatures will stick around for the northern tier.
(FOX Weather)
February is also bringing a weather pattern change. According to the FOX Forecast Center, a westward shift in the jet stream will allow warmer temperatures from the Gulf to spread across the eastern half of the country.
For its part, the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club calls the festivities, "A day to take everything a little less seriously, and break up the winter monotony."