Hurricane Hunters increasingly missing mission requirements in powerful storm systems
The Air Force currently operates 10 WC-130J aircraft that provide data on tropical cyclones and winter storm systems off both coasts of the United States. NOAA plans to acquire six new aircraft to replace its aging fleet, two of which are expected to enter service by 2030.
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WASHINGTON – A newly released government report states that both NOAA and the U.S. Air Force are struggling to meet the increasing demand for reconnaissance missions into tropical cyclones and winter storms.
The Government Accountability Office highlighted issues such as aging aircraft, staffing shortages and maintenance delays, which have hindered the ability to fulfill 100% of requested missions.
Both agencies have dedicated crews and aircraft, commonly known as Hurricane Hunters, that fly both around and through storm systems.
The Air Force’s fleet consists of 10 WC-130J Hercules aircraft, which entered service in the 1990s, while NOAA's aircraft are reported to be even older.
The report reveals that missed missions are raising concerns about the agencies' capacities to fulfill their growing responsibilities.
Recent events where sampling was missed include an atmospheric river event in March, which produced heavy snow and severe storms in California, as well as Hurricane Idalia in 2023, among others.
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The GAO estimated that around 30% of mission requirements were not met during winter storms, while tropical weather events fared better, with a failure rate of just under 9%.
Officials argue that these numbers are too high and could ultimately impact forecasting and preparedness operations.
"When missions are missed, the accuracy of forecasts is degraded, and evacuation decisions and other storm preparations may be negatively impacted," report authors stated.
Aircraft survey weather features between 55 degrees west longitude in the Atlantic and the International Date Line in the Pacific, but the demand for coverage of both winter storms and cyclones in this region has significantly increased since 2014.
A mission is considered to have missed its requirements if a plane does not fly or if objectives are not met due to issues such as mechanical failures or crew availability.
Of most concern to the GAO was its finding that neither NOAA nor the military has an adequate system to track these issues, making it difficult to understand the true underlying causes of missed flights.
"Kermit," taking off from Tampa, Florida, on Jan. 18, 2017.
(NOAA)
The office made more than half a dozen recommendations for improvements in operations, which include:
- Sufficiently track missed mission requirements
- Define how much of a workforce is needed
- Increase communication for needed resources
"In their written comments, NOAA and the Department of Defense agreed with our recommendations and described actions they plan to take to address them. These actions include working together to develop a process to track the reasons for missed mission requirements and to establish senior-level communications and information-sharing protocols for their Hurricane Hunter programs. NOAA stated that it believes its planning process for acquiring new Hurricane Hunter aircraft addressed our recommendation to assess its Hurricane Hunter workforce," the report stated.
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NOAA previously announced that the agency had ordered two advanced hurricane hunter aircraft that were expected to enter service by 2030 and replace an aging fleet, but the GAO found potential issues with this plan as well.
"…NOAA and Air Force senior leaders do not have a mechanism to regularly communicate with each other about their plans and resources. This has hampered the agencies’ ability to ensure that their decisions about investments in the Hurricane Hunters are aligned," the reported stated.
Observational planes are considered a vital part of the weather enterprise, helping to reduce forecast errors and determine a cyclone's true intensity.
Data collected by these aerial missions aids in evacuation efforts and storm preparations, which can be costly.
Officials have previously estimated that the cost of evacuating residents along just one mile of coastline is around $1 million.