2023 'virtually certain' to be world's hottest year on record, scientists say
Copernicus Climate Change Service, which serves as Europe's Earth monitoring agency, released global temperatures for October that showed 2023's heat is outpacing every other year in recorded history.
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This year is "virtually certain" to be the world's warmest on record, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service.
The group, which serves as Europe's Earth monitoring agency, released monthly findings Tuesday that showed October 2023 was the warmest October on record globally. The month finished 1.53 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than the month's 1991-2020 average. October was just behind September 2023's record heat, which was 1.67 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than the same period.
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FILE: APACHE JUNCTION, ARIZONA - AUGUST 04: A damaged saguaro cactus remains standing next to a dead saguaro decaying in the Sonoran Desert on August 4, 2023 near Apache Junction, Arizona. The iconic cacti are under increased stress from extreme heat during Arizona’s brutal summer heat wave and are threatened by a number of issues linked to climate change. Three saguaro cacti lost an arm or fell over in one week at Phoenix’s historic Desert Botanical Garden. The saguaro is the largest cactus in the nation, living as long as 150-200 years and reaching heights of over 50 feet.
(Mario Tama / Getty Images)
"October 2023 has seen exceptional temperature anomalies, following on from four months of global temperature records being obliterated," Copernicus Climate Change Service Deputy Director Samantha Burgess said in a statement. "We can say with near certainty that 2023 will be the warmest year on record, and is currently 1.43ºC (2.57 ºF) above the preindustrial average."
Postindustrial, dating back to 1940, global air temperature averages for October shows 2023 as vastly warmer.
(C3S/ECMWF / FOX Weather)
Last four months ‘obliterated’ temperature records
July came in as the hottest month on record across the globe. The average high was more than a half-degree warmer than the previous record holder, July 2019. August 2023 was the warmest August on record and came in behind July as the hottest month ever.
September has the distinction of having the largest anomaly, 1.67 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than the average September, with records going back to 1940. That is 2.52 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than the pre-industrial average, from 1850-1900.
Air temperatures for the first 10 months of 2023 have been the highest on record. So far, the year is running 2.57 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than the preindustrial average. The year is outpacing the previous warmest year on record, 2016, by 0.18 degrees Fahrenheit.
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<i>These </i>are monthly global surface air temperature anomalies (°C) relative to 1991–2020 from January 1940 to October 2023. The thick bright red line shows 2023 data while the dark red shows 2016 data.
(C3S/ECMWF / FOX Weather)
In comparison, the highest global mean temperature for the calendar year occurred in 2016 at 0.88 degrees Fahrenheit above average. The second-highest global mean temperature occurred in 2020 at 0.86 degrees Fahrenheit above average, according to the C3S.
Warmest October on both land and sea
October's surface air temperature average was 59.54 degrees Fahrenheit. The month's sea surface temperature average also topped all other Octobers. Scientists at Copernicus partially credit El Niño for the abnormal warmth, but said the anomalies at this point are not as great as those of the historically strong 1997 and 2015 events.
The extent of Antarctic sea ice has been at record low levels since May. October ice came in at 11% below average. Arctic sea ice is at its seventh lowest for any October at 12% below average.
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Each plot is the average global daily sea surface temperature (°C) from January 1940 to October 2023. 2023 and 2016 are shown with thick lines shaded in bright red and dark red, respectively. Other years are shown with thin lines and shaded according to the decade, from blue (1940s) to brick red (2020s). The dotted line and grey envelope represent the 1.5°C threshold above preindustrial level (1850–1900) and its uncertainty.
(C3S/ECMWF / FOX Weather)
Climate goals
In 2015, 196 nations adopted the Paris Climate Agreement, which targets to hold the increase in the global average air temperature to below 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit above preindustrial levels and to "pursue efforts" to limit the temperature increase to 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit above preindustrial levels, according to the United Nations.
The U.N. Climate Change Conference (COP 28) runs from Nov. 30 to Dec. 12, in Dubai, United Arab Emirates.