Disturbance in Caribbean likely to become tropical depression within next few days
Nov. 30 marks the end of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. In the meantime, there are three areas worth watching including a low-pressure system in the Caribbean Sea with increasing chances of development.
Disturbance in Caribbean likely to become tropical depression next week
A broad area of low pressure is expected to become at least a tropical depression early next week as it slowly moves into the northwestern Caribbean.
This story is now archived. For the latest information on the Caribbean tropical disturbance, click here.
A new named storm has been christened this week and a second named storm this coming week is not out of the question as the final month of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season counts down.
Nov. 30 marks the end of the Atlantic hurricane season, and that can't come soon enough. In the meantime, there is now a subtropical storm and two other areas the NHC is watching, according to the National Hurricane Center.
(FOX Weather)
Southwestern Caribbean Sea: Home to future Rafael?
A disturbance in the southwestern Caribbean Sea is looking more and more likely like it is going to soon develop into at least a tropical depression, the NHC says.
As of Saturday morning, the system was still just a group of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean Sea, but gradual development is expected over the weekend, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next few days as the system moves over the central and western Caribbean, according to the NHC.
With a subtropical system in the northern Atlantic earning the name Patty early Saturday morning, should this Caribbean disturbance reach tropical storm strength, the next name on the 2024 Atlantic list is Rafael.
(FOX Weather)
"There is a general consensus in the computer forecast model projections that the system will be at or near tropical storm strength when it reaches the southern Gulf on Wednesday or Thursday," says FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross. "A dense plume of tropical moisture is forecast to rotate north with the potential storm. This will enhance the flooding threat on the Caribbean islands west of Puerto Rico beginning Monday. Some of the moisture could reach South Florida by midweek."
But Norcross says once the system is in the Gulf, the forecast gets fuzzy with weaker steering currents that add uncertainty to the forecast.
"If the system stays relatively weak, it looks more likely to drift to the west, perhaps toward the Mexican coast," Norcross said. "If it's on the stronger side, however, it could continue north toward some part of the U.S. Gulf Coast."
But the storm may still find hostile atmospheric conditions if it attempts to approach the U.S., with a lot of dry air in the Gulf of Mexico and an unfavorable upper-level wind pattern.
"So, even if possible-Rafael is able to strengthen in the southern Gulf, a significant storm at the coast looks unlikely, based on what we know now," Norcross said, adding if the system ever did reach the coast, on the current schedule, that would happen around next weekend.
"Obviously, we're going to have another week of watching the tropics, though the odds of a significant storm impacting the U.S. appear to be low," he said. "Forecasts for a week from now are always fuzzy, of course, so stay tuned."
BRYAN NORCROSS: FORECAST CONSENSUS SHOWS A TROPICAL SYSTEM TRACKING TOWARD THE GULF NEXT WEEK
Northeastern Caribbean Sea
The NHC is also monitoring an area of low pressure in the northeastern Caribbean Sea, but this system has a low chance of developing over the next week.
"Some heavy tropical downpours will affect the northeastern Caribbean islands for the next couple of days as the system tracks to the west," Norcross said. "Next week, it will likely be absorbed by the developing disturbance in the Caribbean."
The National Hurricane Center is giving this system a slight chance of becoming a tropical depression over the next couple of days. Even if that should happen, however, it wouldn't change the forecast weather, Norcross said.
(FOX Weather)
North Atlantic: Welcome Subtropical Storm Patty
In the North Atlantic, a potent storm developed into Subtropical Storm Patty, the National Hurricane Center said Saturday morning.
Patty had sustained winds of 50 mph and was located just over 400 miles west/northwest of the Azores, the NHC said.
The storm, previously designated Invest 96L, is expected to maintain its current strength Saturday and then gradually weaken Sunday, perhaps becoming a post-tropical cyclone by late Sunday, according to the NHC.
(FOX Weather)
The storm's remnants could eventually reach Portugal and western Spain early next week.