Bryan Norcross: Disturbance to impact the eastern Caribbean islands with gusty squalls, heavy rain
The National Hurricane Center is still giving Invest 95L a slight chance of developing. However, even if the system organizes enough to get the designation, it's unlikely the impacts on the islands will be any different.
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UPDATED Monday at 9 a.m.
The Atlantic Tropical Disturbance we have been following Invest 95L has not been able to organize a circulation well enough to be designated a tropical depression. The National Hurricane Center is still giving it a slight chance of developing. However, even if the system organizes enough to get the designation, it's unlikely the impacts on the islands will be any different.
A moisture surge ahead of the nominal center of the disturbance will reach the eastern Caribbean islands today, with local downpours accompanying the axis of the disturbance reaching the islands late tonight and tomorrow. Gusty squalls and very heavy rain in some areas should be expected.
NOAA satellite images show Invest 95L in the central Atlantic Ocean.
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The atmospheric conditions appear marginally conducive for the disturbance to organize, though dusty air in the vicinity and the system's rapid forward movement has so far been deterrents enough to prevent a cohesive circulation from developing.
The slight chance of development will continue for the next couple of days. But once the system gets far into the Caribbean, the upper winds are forecast to become too hostile for further organization. The disturbance will likely continue across the Caribbean as a blob of moisture that will eventually move over Central America.
Stay informed in the eastern Caribbean islands for local updates over the next couple of days.
Far to the north, Tropical Storm Don is transitioning into a non-tropical North Atlantic storm. The last NHC advisory will likely be written today.
Elsewhere, robust new disturbances are forecast to move off Africa, although the dusty environment that made things difficult for the current disturbance is also forecast to continue. So nothing looks to be in the offing for this week.