Bryan Norcross: Extremely dangerous scenario developing this week in Florida from likely-Hurricane Milton

Updated at 11 a.m. ET on Sunday, Oct. 6, 2024

Tropical Storm Milton is rapidly organizing in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting it to reach hurricane strength by tomorrow, and the consensus of the computer forecast models concurs. The atmospheric pattern over the southern Gulf for the next couple of days appears very conducive for Milton to intensify.

On the current schedule, Milton will make landfall on Florida's west coast on Wednesday. Everybody from the Nature Coast to the Florida Keys, including the Tampa Bay area and Southwest Florida, should be on high alert. 

The storm surge threat to areas near and south of where Milton's center of circulation makes landfall will be extreme. Gulf water will be pushed over the beaches and into the bays, inlets, harbors and rivers that connect to the Gulf of Mexico. Saltwater will push well inland.

Wherever the peak surge occurs, the water rise will be dramatically higher than during Hurricane Helene.

It's unclear at this point, of course, if the Tampa Bay area will be in the extreme-threat surge zone. Based on what we know now, it's going to be a close call. It's critical that everyone in Hillsborough, Pinellas and the surrounding counties knows their evacuation zone and listens for local information and instructions.

If the center of Milton tracks just to the north of Tampa Bay, the scope of the potential storm surge is impossible to imagine. Large sections of the metropolitan area will go underwater. Think about Helene's surge and add another few feet.

Before Helene, the last time a hurricane pushed a dramatic storm surge over the beaches and into Tampa Bay was in 1921. The surge from that storm was about 50% higher than Helene's. The granddaddy surge was from a hurricane in late September 1848 when about 15 feet of water rise covered the area that is now downtown Tampa and new inlets were ripped through coastal islands. Just over 2 weeks later, another hurricane hit the same area, which also produced a significant storm surge.

Only twice in the record book has a hurricane tracked across the Gulf and made landfall on the west coast of the Florida Peninsula like Milton is forecast to do. Those hit in 1859 and 1888. The 1888 storm was devastating in Cedar Key, a town north of Tampa where Hurricane Helene caused significant damage.

The atmospheric environment across the southern Gulf looks very conducive for Milton to strengthen. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting it to reach Category 3 strength by Tuesday. This means that everyone should mentally and physically prepare for at least a Category 4. 

After that time, hostile upper-level winds might try to weaken the storm so that its peak winds level off as it's moving toward landfall on Wednesday.

The total effect of the "northern energy" from the streak of hostile upper winds is unclear. Beyond just limiting the intensity increase, the upper winds might enhance thunderstorms on the left side (normally the relatively weak side) of the storm as it moves across Florida. They could also cause the circulation to grow in size, which would increase the scope of the storm surge threat.

The National Hurricane Center will take the potential increase in size into account when they issue the first storm surge forecasts later today.

The strong east-to-west flow across the Gulf will spread tropical moisture well in advance of the storm. In addition, a nearby front will increase the amount of rain that falls over Florida. The first round of heavy rain will begin today and continue through Monday. The second round arrives with the storm on Wednesday. Parts of the Florida Peninsula are expected to receive 5 to 8 inches of rain with some areas getting a foot.

Dangerous flooding from the heavy rain is possible.

Hurricane Milton will be accelerating as it approaches Florida, which means that strong winds will extend well in land. Hurricane-force gusts could occur all the way to the Atlantic coast in a corridor across the state if the current forecasts are correct.

Metropolitan Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach will likely be on the edge of the storm, but bands of strong winds and torrential rain are possible.

The Keys will be subject to storm surge from the Gulf and in Florida Bay along with very gusty winds. Unless something very unexpected happens, however, this will not be a Hurricane Wilma repeat. The storm will likely be farther away and not as big in diameter.

Since Milton is just developing, adjustments to the forecast can be expected. Don't focus on the middle line of the cone or any particular computer forecast model. The bottom line is, this situation will likely require quick action by millions of people in Central and Southwest Florida, and especially along the Gulf Coast. Delay could be deadly if evacuations are required for your area. Stay well-informed.

Since large parts of Florida could lose power late Wednesday, it's time to prepare your refrigerator. Fill Ziploc bags three-quarters full of water and stuff them around all the food in your freezer so they are ice by the time the power might go out. Eliminate the air in the freeze if you can. This will keep the refrigerator and freezer cold longer. Do not turn down the temperature control in the fridge. 

Out in the Atlantic, major Hurricane Kirk is putting a tremendous amount of energy in the Atlantic Ocean. Strong swells and dangerous surf will impact the East Coast today into tomorrow. Use extreme care at the beach. What's left of Kirk could be a threat to northern Europe about Wednesday.

Hurricane Leslie and the system behind it will not threaten land.