Bryan Norcross: Florida watching for Tropical Storm Sara which is likely to develop in Caribbean

Updated at 6:30 a.m. on Wednesday, Nov. 13, 2024.

The tropical disturbance we've been watching near Jamaica is showing signs of organization. 

The National Hurricane Center has designated the system Invest 99L, which means they are running extra computer models and analyses on it. The disturbance will likely become a depression soon and Tropical Storm Sara by the end of the week.

The atmospheric pattern over the Caribbean appears extremely conducive for likely-Sara to further organize and strengthen. The only obvious impediment to the system becoming an intense hurricane in the Caribbean appears to be interaction with land.

The consensus of the computer forecasts is that a storm will form near or offshore of the Honduras-Nicaragua border Friday or over the weekend. There’s a good chance it will stall and become a hurricane by early next week. Then where does it go?

Some computer models slowly track it north, threading the needle between Mexico and Cuba, so a powerful hurricane emerges into the Gulf. On the other hand, many possible forecasts take the system over or near Central America or Cuba, including over Mexico's Yucatán Peninsula. Those predictions generally show a weaker storm in the Gulf of Mexico.

Still, if the system maintains a core and decent structure during its time over land, there is plenty of warm water in the southern Gulf for it to reorganize and strengthen before it reaches Florida, if it heads that way. Seawater in the northern half of the Gulf is much cooler.

Unfortunately, the weather pattern is forecast to resemble what we often see in October when hurricanes can form in the Caribbean and arc north toward Florida. A high-pressure center near the Bahamas will steer likely-Sara to the north or northwest over the weekend and into early next week. Then a sharp dip in the jet stream will scoop up the storm and sling it toward Florida around Tuesday, according to a number of the computer forecasts that we monitor.

The fact that so many of the variety of computer forecast models are indicating a threat to Florida is concerning, but things can change. As always, when a system is just developing, forecast errors are likely to be large.

There is nothing to do right now except stay informed. On the current schedule, likely-Sara would arrive at the west coast of Florida some time on Wednesday. 

There's no way to know what part of the state is most likely to be impacted, assuming a track toward Florida occurs. A tiny difference in the angle of the steering flow or the location of likely-Sara when it enters the Gulf could drastically change the landfall point from South Florida to the Panhandle. It’s impossible to be more precise right now.

Stay aware. Stay prepared. Unfortunately, this hurricane season is not over yet.