Bryan Norcross: Florida threat from Sara diminished but concern for catastrophic flooding in Central America
Around Wednesday of next week, leftover tropical moisture with some gusty winds looks likely to stream across the coast of north Tampa and push south ahead of an approaching strong cold front.
Bryan Norcross talks about Tropical Storm Sara and its possible future
FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross says flooding will be a big problem for Central America because of Tropical Storm Sara, but the system could still bring impacts to the U.S. next week.
Updated 9:30 a.m. EST on Nov. 15, 2024.
The west coast of Florida is still likely to feel the effects of the remnants of Tropical Storm Sara, but an organized storm is no longer expected to impact the state. Around Wednesday of next week, leftover tropical moisture with some gusty winds looks likely to stream across the coast of north Tampa and push south ahead of an approaching strong cold front.
The combination of the tropical disturbance, the front, and the strong jet stream behind it can create nasty weather, depending on how exactly they come together. Tropical downpours will likely be in the forecast in advance of the big change in the weather coming with the front. The entire state should feel the cool air by Thursday.
For now, Tropical Storm Sara is drifting west just off the northern coast of Honduras. Steering currents are collapsing, so the storm will get stuck near the Honduran coast through the weekend.
Tropical Storm Sara is drifting west just off the northern coast of Honduras. (NOAA)
The constant pounding of tropical moisture against the high terrain of northern Honduras is forecast to produce 25-30 inches of rainfall in some areas. Catastrophic flooding and mudslides are possible. Across much of Central America, life-threatening rainfall is forecast.
The constant pounding of tropical moisture against the high terrain of northern Honduras is forecast to produce 25-30 inches of rainfall in some areas. (NOAA)
If Sara drifts over the mountainous terrain in northern Honduras, the storm will weaken further than it already is. If it takes a path down the right side of the cone so that it stays farther offshore, the conditions are conducive to significant strengthening. The strong consensus of the computer forecasts, however, is for Sara's center to track near or over the Honduran coastline, so the National Hurricane Center is not forecasting dramatic strengthening. Rain is the primary hazard.
Late in the weekend, the steering pattern will start to change, and a path to the northwest will open up. This will take Sara over Belize and the Yucatán Peninsula of Mexico. Sara is forecast to be relatively weak when it lands in or near Belize City - nominally as a 50 mph tropical storm. The expectation is that Sara's circulation will not survive the trek over the Yucatán.
The official National Hurricane Center forecast dissipates the system on Monday before it reaches the southern Gulf of Mexico.
Some computer forecasts arc a remnant of Sara toward the Florida Peninsula, but the upper-level winds are forecast to be hostile, so redevelopment of the storm is not expected.
Impacts in the form of tropical downpours with gusty winds are still possible, however. Sometimes, tornadoes can form with this kind of pattern. The band of tropical weather will move south quickly ahead of the strong cold front pushing down the state next Wednesday.
For now, stay informed just to be sure nothing weird happens, but plan for a normal week of weather next week with a brief stormy period on Wednesday.