Bryan Norcross: No further tropical development is expected this month

Hurricane season 2024 is on pause, and there's a good chance it's over. Hostile upper-level winds and dry air are forecast to cover the Gulf, the Atlantic and most of the Caribbean for the foreseeable future.

There is always a small chance of development in the extreme southern Caribbean or possibly in the open Atlantic from a non-tropical system, but the odds are low. Occasionally, systems develop outside hurricane season.

It looks likely that the season will end with 18 named storms and 11 hurricanes, five of which were Category 3 or above. The numbers were at the lower end of the ranges forecast by NOAA, but the spirit of the seasonal forecasts was correct.

An oddball weather pattern that shut off development of African systems in August and early September lowered the total numbers. As soon as things normalized, however, storms developed at the rapid rate that was anticipated.

Seasonal forecasts rely heavily on predicting how warm or cool the Atlantic Ocean will be, where storms are most likely to track, and the state of El Niño/La Niña in the Pacific. The predictions for these factors were largely correct, which resulted in the explosive second half of the hurricane season.

As we saw this season, in 2022, and in other seasons in the past, sometimes a suppressive atmospheric pattern thwarts storm development during a stretch of days or weeks, even in the heart of the season. Just like a particular orientation of the jet stream can't be predicted more than a couple of weeks in advance, in the spring, it's impossible to know if a wacky weather pattern will develop in August or September, shutting things off.

So let's be grateful that Mother Nature gave us a break for a month and a half in the middle of the season. Otherwise, the numbers would undoubtedly have been a lot higher.

For now, enjoy the change in the season coming to Florida and the Gulf Coast this week.