Bryan Norcross: Extreme hurricane scenario developing for parts of the Florida Gulf coast
Helene forecast to be a large Category 3 hurricane at landfall on the west coast of Florida
FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross: Future Helene poses 'significant threat' to Florida
FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross breaks down the latest advisory for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, which is likely to become a major hurricane before making landfall along Florida’s Gulf Coast later this week.
Updated at 9 a.m. ET on Sept. 24, 2024.
Helene is still in the development stage off the coast of Cancún, Mexico. The system is officially called Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine awaiting the development of the center of circulation. There is a high consensus among the various computer forecasts that the system will organize through the day today and turn into Hurricane Helene tomorrow as it heads north in the Gulf of Mexico.
Satellite imagery of the storm that will likely become Hurricane Helene forming in the Western Caribbean
The primary threat zone is from near Panama City around the Big Bend of Florida to about Sarasota. But the possibility of dangerous storm surge extends to Southwest Florida.
Helene will be a large hurricane with strong winds extending perhaps 250 miles to the east. The circulation will cover the Florida Peninsula and most of the Panhandle. As the storm moves north in the Gulf late Wednesday and Thursday, more or less paralleling the Florida West Coast, the winds will push the Gulf water into the harbors, bays, inlets, and rivers that are open to the Gulf of Mexico.
The National Hurricane Center has issued storm surge forecasts for the water to reach up to 15 feet above normal high tide in and around Apalachee Bay southeast of Tallahassee. The forecast is for water up to 8 feet above the normal high tide line in and around Tampa Bay IF the peak surge comes at the time of high tide. But even at low tide, the water level is forecast to be dangerous. See the detailed storm surge forecasts from the NHC at the bottom of the post.
It's critical that everybody along and near the West Coast of Florida knows the forecast for their area, and what the local instructions are from emergency management.
This is a situation where the cone can be very misleading. There will be significant effects outside of the cone, especially to the right side.
The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Helene to be a Category 3 hurricane at landfall in the northeast Gulf. Some computer forecasts are significantly stronger than the current forecast. The system will be passing over a pool of high-energy Gulf water. Our experience tells us that storms with a well-enough-developed core can explode in intensity when they are supercharged by extra warm and deep loop current. We have to be ready for Helene to be at least Category 4 strength as it passes offshore of Tampa Bay.
Until Helene fully develops, we don't have a good center to track, so the forecast cone can jump around a little more than usual. So far, the storm has been very well-behaved and the models have been correct, but there's no guarantee that that will continue. So it's important to keep an open mind, and react to the possibility of dangerous conditions in your area.
The National Hurricane Center allows for uncertainty in their forecasts and warnings. That's why not everybody who is alerted ends up with the worst possible outcome. But nobody should be surprised.
Obviously, Tallahassee is in the center of the cone. The threat to the capital city and the coastal region just to the south is very high. Apalachee Bay, the body of water in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, is extremely prone to storm surge. If the forecast is correct, conditions along the coast in Taylor, Wakulla, and surrounding counties will likely be unsurvivable in areas where the wind is blowing the Gulf water onshore.
This storm is forecast to come on fast on Thursday. It will be accelerating as it heads toward the northeastern Gulf. Don't wait too late to follow local evacuation instructions.
The fast movement means that a strong storm will penetrate well inland. Much of the state of Georgia including North Georgia is in the threat zone. Depending on the track of the center, the Atlanta metropolitan area might be dramatically affected on Friday. Significant impacts could be felt farther north and northeast in South Carolina, North Carolina, and Tennessee.
Power will likely go out over a large area. Now is the time to plan for that possibility if you are in the potential impact zone. I published these tips yesterday and I'm adding some more that some of my hurricane-experienced readers suggested.
- Fill Ziploc bags 3/4 full with water and stuff them in the freezer to minimize the air around whatever you have frozen. If the power goes out later in the week, this will keep the food in both the freezer and the refrigerator colder longer. Obviously, you'll want to open the freezer or refrigerator as little as possible. DO NOT turn your fridge down to a lower setting. You can use this for drinking water if it eventually melts.
- Think about important papers and other items in the house that you want to be sure are safe. Plan to put them into heavy-duty trash bags. Your dishwasher and dryer are good places to put the bags.
- Get some duct tape and plastic painter's sheets—the kind you put on the floor when you're painting the walls. If the storm is coming your way, put a plastic sheet in the bathtub and fill it 3/4 full of water. That water will be used to flush toilets and for cleaning up if your water supply goes out.
- If you haven't done it already, pick up your hurricane food and water immediately. Even inland, you could get stranded at home while streets are being cleared. And if you end up evacuating, you'll need your supplies.
- You don't need gallons and gallons of store-bought water. Pots and pans and pitchers at home filled with tap water will work just fine. Don't worry if the store is out of water. Buy empty jugs.
- Have a plan for where you'll park your car where a tree can't fall on it and a flood can't get it. A parking garage is a great option if there is nowhere safe close by.
- Now is the time to plug in any rechargeable batteries for things like power tools (for post-storm cleanup and repair), lights and tech (power banks).
- If you're evacuating to a hotel, book with the hotel directly. Not through a third-party website or service.
- Gas up the car, get extra cash, and buy a supply of important prescription drugs today. Don't wait.
- Plan for animals and pets now.
If you are impacted by the storm, what you do now will make a world of difference in your situation when the storm has passed at the end of the week.
Here are the detailed forecasts from the NHC.
Out in the Atlantic, it looks likely that Tropical Storm Isaac will eventually form. It is forecast to turn north.