A system to watch in the Gulf of Mexico late in the week
FOX Weather hurricane specialist Bryan Norcross provides analysis of activity in the tropics
The podcast Tracking the Tropics with Bryan Norcross is now available to stream. (FOX Weather)
Updated: 7 a.m. EDT
The National Hurricane Center is making note of a tropical disturbance in the Caribbean that could trigger a tropical depression in the far southern Gulf of Mexico at the end of the week. The curved Mexican coastline in the southern Gulf can help systems spin up if other conditions are met.
The National Hurricane Center is watching one area in the Atlantic Ocean on Aug. 16, 2022, for possible development. (FOX Weather)
It appears the system will arrive in the Gulf about Friday and only have a couple of days over the warm Gulf water before it moves inland over Mexico or South Texas. The upper-level winds are forecast to be reasonably conducive for development, but dry air and its short time over the water would seem to be limiting factors. At this point, the NHC is giving the disturbance a slight chance of developing into a tropical depression before it moves inland.
The National Hurricane Center is monitoring the Bay of Campeche in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico for possible tropical development over the next five days. (FOX Weather)
In the tropical Atlantic, nothing is developing yet, but long-range computer models are giving some indication of tropical activity in a week or so. On average, the odds of a tropical storm or hurricane developing increase significantly around Aug. 20. So it would be normal for activity to pick up next week plus or minus.
FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross has a podcast, Tracking the Tropics with Bryan Norcross, available now on FOX News Audio. You can get it on your device by clicking here.