Bryan Norcross: Tropical pattern change forecast for next week
So far this month, the jet stream has kept the rich, moisture-laden air south of the U.S. Heavy rain has impacted the northwest Caribbean islands, while moderate to severe drought conditions prevail across the southern half of Florida.
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Mother Nature has been slow getting going, but the consensus of the human and computer forecasts for next week indicates a pattern shift.
So far this month, the jet stream has kept the rich, moisture-laden air south of the U.S. Heavy rain has impacted the northwest Caribbean islands, while moderate to severe drought conditions prevail across the southern half of Florida.
Florida drought
Statistically, June is one of the rainiest months in Florida because fronts from the north and tropical moisture from the south meet over the state. The jet stream pattern that pushes fronts into North Florida also enhances rainfall south of the front. So far this season, the jet stream has been farther south than normal, so June in Florida has been relatively dry.
June in Florida has been relatively dry.
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Over the next week, a more typical pattern is forecast to evolve. The jet stream will lift north, and rich tropical moisture will push toward the northern Gulf coast and the Florida peninsula. Though there are no signs of tropical development yet, long-range computer forecast models indicate that low pressure will strengthen over Central America.
Long range
Sometimes, a piece of that low-pressure area gets pulled north by a dip in the jet stream and develops into a separate tropical system in the Gulf. We'll see. Currently, it doesn't appear that will happen in our seven-day forecast window. If it happens at all.
New computer predictions are still predicting an extremely busy hurricane season. The Atlantic is spectacularly warm, and the hurricane-enhancing La Niña appears to be developing as forecast.
Sometimes, a dip in the jet stream pulls a piece of that low-pressure area north and develops into a separate tropical system in the Gulf.
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If we don't get some named storms early in the season, however, it becomes less likely that we'll see giant totals at the end of the year. That means the forecasts of total named storms into the 30s are unlikely to be correct. There won't be enough time. But it's the hurricanes we care about, and most of those form in August, September and October.
The weather pattern in early June has nothing to do with what will happen in the heart of the hurricane season, so a week or two delay in the start of the rainy season in Florida doesn't tell us anything.
Hurricane preparation season continues in effect. The sales-tax holiday in Florida on hurricane-prep supplies continues for another week.