Invest 99L likely to strengthen into Tropical Storm Sara as Florida monitors system for potential impacts
The NHC is giving the system near-certain odds of developing within days. Computer forecast models show the system hanging out in the western Caribbean, which will take advantage of the warm waters and low wind shear.
Invest 99L remains on track to become Tropical Storm Sara by weekend
The odds of development for Invest 99L in the Caribbean Sea are continuing to increase and forecasters say the system remains on track to become Tropical Storm Sara by the weekend.
MIAMI – Invest 99L is becoming better organized and remains on track to develop into a tropical depression within days. Florida residents are now keeping an eye on the system, which forecasters say will likely strengthen into Tropical Storm Sara by the weekend.
An "invest" designation allows NOAA forecasters to run specialized computer forecast models to get additional data on the disturbance’s future growth potential.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) said Wednesday that the disturbance continues to produce an area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure, and the system will likely become a tropical depression soon as it slowly moves into the western Caribbean.
(FOX Weather)
The NHC is giving the system a near-certain chance of developing soon. a 90% chance of developing over the next two days and near-certain odds of developing within the next week.
"The steering currents across the Caribbean are very light, so eventually, ‘likely-Sara’ is forecast to meander in the western Caribbean near Central America through the weekend," FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross said.
After that, computer forecast models indicate that the system could strengthen into a tropical storm as it hangs out in the area and takes advantage of the warm waters and low wind shear.
The FOX Forecast Center said those conditions could allow future Sara to become a hurricane — possibly a strong one.
(FOX Weather)
Regardless of development, heavy precipitation is expected to fall across the region from Jamaica and portions of Haiti to Central America and Mexico.
From there, forecasters said an area of high pressure will build to the north of the system, and where it sets up will ultimately determine the path of future Sara.
The FOX Forecast Center said the system may move into Central America or move north and track into the Gulf of Mexico sometime next week and could eventually impact Florida.
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Florida residents need to keep close eye on tropics forecast
A sharp dip in the jet stream and its accompanying cold front are forecast to reach Texas about a week from now.
"That strong jet stream dip could lift ‘likely-Sara’ out of the Caribbean around the middle of next week and accelerate it northeast toward Florida or east across the northern Caribbean," Norcross said. "All possibilities are on the table."
Disturbance 99L looks to strengthen in Caribbean, could become Tropical Storm Sara
FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross analyzes the latest data surrounding Invest 99L and the storm's eventual prospects of possibly moving toward Florida next week.
He adds there are plausible scenarios indicating the storm could impact any part of the Florida Peninsula.
"Everyone from the Big Bend to South Florida and the Keys should stay up to date on the latest forecasts," he said. "Nothing will happen fast, but the computer forecasts are in unusually high agreement on the threat, so attention is required. On the current schedule, ‘likely-Sara’ would be in the vicinity of the Florida coast about Wednesday of next week."
But he reminds forecast watchers that predictions for systems that have yet to develop are subject to large errors and big changes.
"So don’t hang your hat on any one prediction," Norcross said. "Many possibilities are on the table, but be thinking about what you would do if action were required next week."