Tropical influx from Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico to fuel Florida downpours regardless of development
The National Hurricane Center has highlighted the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico with a medium chance of development over the next week. Although the odds of tropical development have decreased, this will not change the wet weather destined for Florida.
Watching 3 areas in the tropics for further development
The FOX Forecast Center is watching an area of disturbed weather in the Gulf of Mexico and two tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Ocean.
MIAMI – The FOX Forecast Center is monitoring the Gulf of Mexico, where an area of disturbed weather promises to make for some squally days similar to that of a nor’easter with gusty winds, heavy rainfall and rough seas for Florida.
The wet weather is associated with a broad area of low pressure known as the Central American Gyre, which will send plumes of moisture toward the Sunshine State. Over the next week, a widespread area could 4-6 inches of rainfall, which could cause isolated flooding where precipitation repeatedly moves over the same area.
The National Hurricane Center has highlighted the Gulf of Mexico with a low chance of development over the next week, but even though those development odds have decreased, it will not alter the forecast for Florida.
"In other words, the whole Gulf of Mexico is in the area where it develops or what the shape of it is going to be. It’s impossible to say at this point because the various computer forecasts have all kinds of different ideas," FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross said.
Sea-surface temperatures are warm enough for tropical development, but the FOX Forecast Center warns hostile upper-level winds will work to keep significant development at bay over the next week.
How much rain is expected?
Forecast models show the heaviest rainfall is expected to be from the Interstate 4 corridor and southward, where a widespread area could see 4-6 inches of rainfall over the next week.
Because much of the rain will be spread out over several days, widespread flooding is not anticipated, but where thunderstorms repeatedly move over the same region, issues could arise.
The expected impacted region is farther south from where Hurricane Helene made landfall last week, so the hardest-hit areas of the Big Bend will not receive as much rainfall as locations such as Fort Myers, Orlando, Tampa and Miami.
"At the very least, rain late in the weekend into next week for a good part of the Florida Peninsula. And we watch for the possibility of more southern development, and we see what happens with that," Norcross stated.
In addition to the rainfall, rough seas will lead to threats of increased rip currents and erosion along beaches – a pattern that will continue well into next week.
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If tropical development doesn’t happen, is the hurricane season over?
If a cyclone – whether a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane – does not form from the current area of disturbed weather, it doesn’t mean that the hurricane season is over for the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
The waters in the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf remain plenty warm for development, and October is typically the month with the most landfalls in South Florida.
According to NOAA historical data, more than 60% of landfalls in the region occur after the climatological peak of the hurricane season, which is Sept. 10.
The latest date a hurricane has ever hit the Sunshine State is Nov. 21, when Hurricane Kate slammed into the Florida Panhandle in 1985.
The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor Hurricane Kirk in the central Atlantic and what could become Leslie in the eastern Atlantic, but neither poses a direct threat to any landmasses over the next week.