Will 2024 Atlantic hurricane season be active? One early forecast says yes
Twenty named storms last year made the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season the fourth most active on record, and according to an extended forecast by TropicalStormRisk.com, 2024 could be just as busy, if not busier.
Early 2024 Atlantic hurricane season forecast calls for active year in tropics
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is only four short months away, and one forecast is already calling for a busy season in the tropics this year. Tropical Storm Risk Manager and Assistant Forecaster at London-headquartered EuroTempest Dr. Adam Lea joined Weather Command on Monday to talk about the early forecast.
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season begins in four months on June 1, and one early forecast is predicting an active year in the tropics.
Twenty named storms last year made the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season the fourth most active on record, and according to an extended forecast by TropicalStormRisk.com, 2024 could be just as busy, if not busier.
But there are uncertainties when it comes to the forecast.
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Dr. Adam Lea, one of the authors of the forecast, joined FOX Weather on Monday and explained why the thought is that 2024 could be a busy season in the tropical Atlantic Ocean.
"Firstly, the Atlantic Ocean last year had some very warm sea surface temperatures, in fact, record warm in places," he said. "With all that heat that’s accumulated in the oceans, it’s going to take a long time for all that to dissipate."
Because of that, Lea says he anticipates that the warmer sea surface temperatures already in place will persist through the upcoming summer when hurricane season ramps up.
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A fading El Niño is also expected to play a role, according to Lea.
"The second thing is the El Niño that’s currently in place has now peaked and is predicted to gradually dissipate as we go through spring," he said. "And when we get into peak hurricane season from about August onwards, the signals are that the model forecasts I’ve looked are suggesting, are going for, if anything, a weak La Niña in place by the time we get through August, September and October, which would act also to amplify the hurricane activity."
Those factors, Lea believes, could lead to an active hurricane season this year.
The National Hurricane Center and Colorado State University also release forecasts for the Atlantic hurricane season, but there is still some time before those are released.
Lea says that even though we’re still in the middle of winter, trends are showing that the oceans won’t have much time to cool off before they begin to warm up again for the start of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.
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"It’s not just the tropical Atlantic at the moment," he said. "It’s all the subtropical Atlantic as well. Off the coast of Spain, in a kind of swath all the way down the Canary Islands, into the subtropics and across the Atlantic, that’s very warm at the moment."
Lea said the warm water pattern in the subtropical eastern Atlantic tends to show warmer sea surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic later in the year.
But that doesn’t mean it’s a given that this year will see an active hurricane season.
"Of course, there is still some uncertainty in the sea surface temperatures," he said. "I mean, it’s not to say that something might happen or change rapidly in the atmosphere that might act to cool sea surface temperatures. You can’t rule that out completely. But at the moment, it’s more likely than not that the sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic will be warmer than average. Maybe not as warm as they have been recently, but still warmer than average."
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So, if there are still many uncertainties regarding the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, why put out a forecast so far in advance?
"We’ve been issuing the early December forecasts over the last 20 years or so, and we just carried on with them," Lea said. "I think Colorado State University stopped doing it because they felt that the forecast skill just wasn’t there."
But as far as 2024 goes, Lea said that although there are still uncertainties with early December forecasts, they may be slightly lower than in previous years.
"You’ve got both primary climate factors here pointing in the same direction," he said. "Often in previous years, we’ve had sea surface temperatures kind of near neutral. Although El Niño and La Niña is highly uncertain. And so, forecasts might be for a near-average season at this time of year, but I think this year is a little bit different, I think."