Texas' ERCOT warns about tight power grid conditions this summer
The Public Utility Commission and Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) both said their models show a possible supply shortage in "extreme summer conditions."
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DALLAS - The agencies in charge of the Texas power grid gave a sobering warning about their ability to ensure enough electricity to meet demands this summer.
The Public Utility Commission and Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) both said their models show a possible supply shortage in "extreme summer conditions."
The data from the latest Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy report shows the grid facing a troubling new reality, reports FOX 4 Dallas.
The warning was not about the stability of the power grid. It’s instead what regulators call a shortage of "dispatchable energy" or power that can be brought online with short notice.
"Data shows for the first time that the peak demand for electricity this summer will exceed the amount we can generate from on demand dispatchable power," said PUC chair Peter Lake.
Most dispatchable power comes from natural gas plants. It can be sent to the grid on short notice when conditions are tight.
Supply and demand problem
In this case, Lake says there's a supply and demand problem.
Between 2008 and 2020, there's been a meager 1.5% growth in dispatchable power versus an explosive 24% growth in the Texas population.
HOUSTON, TEXAS - JUNE 15: A power plant is shown on June 15, 2021 in Houston, Texas. The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), which controls approximately 90% of the power in Texas, has requested Texas residents to conserve power through Friday as temperatures surge in the state. An increase in forced generation outages early into the Summer season has prompted this urgent request.
(Photo by Brandon Bell/Getty Images / Getty Images)
"Our models estimate that this summer's peak could be about 6,000 megawatts greater than last summer's. However, we're only expecting a nominal increase of about 850 megawatts of thermal capacity since last summer," said ERCOT CEO Pablo Vegas.
Some Texas senators unveiled plans Thursday to shift the focus away from wind and solar and toward resources like natural gas.
"What that means is that the grid will be reliant on things like wind and solar," said Dr. Joshua Rhodes, a research scientist at UT Austin.
ERCOT will be relying on renewables, like wind and solar, to meet demand on the hottest days of summer, but renewables can be unpredictable on any given day, depending upon the forecast.
EROT and the PUC warned the public to expect emergency conditions at times this summer.
‘Everything has to go wrong for the lights to go out’
Still, Rhodes isn't too concerned.
"Just because we do get into some you know, some of the first level emergency situations doesn't mean that the power goes out," he said.
The SARA report states the risk for a power outage goes up as the sun goes down, because the sun sets faster than the atmosphere cools and our solar generation is all gone.
The PUC chair pointed to the 9 p.m. hour, where this is most likely to be a problem.
Both he and the head of ERCOT warned, these are not forecasts, but modeling of the most extreme conditions.
"These scenarios are based on circumstances that include a combination of unplanned forced outages and varying weather conditions," said Vegas.
Rhodes put the SARA report into perspective.
"Pretty much everything has to go wrong for the lights to go out. And it's a pretty small chance that that would happen. And if it does, I wouldn't expect it to last very long," he said.
Vegas says the state need to incentivize building more dispatchable generation so that as demand continues to grow, there will be reliable supply to serve it.