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Official fall outlook tells US what weather to expect this autumn

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center is calling for a warm and dry fall for much of the country.

By Aaron Barker Source FOX Weather

Fall outlook shows us what to expect in US this autumn

The official fall weather outlook from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center says most of the U.S. will see a warm, dry autumn.

The official weather outlook for fall in the U.S. is out, and it may not be good news for pumpkin spice latte lovers. 

Fall is a transition season, meaning the hot weather pattern of summer begins to change to the cold weather pattern of winter. The result can be large fluctuations in temperatures, severe weather and the first snows of the season.

WHAT DOES A SIZZLING SUMMER MEAN FOR AUTUMN LEAVES?

This year, the autumnal equinox happens at 8:43 a.m. ET on Sept. 22. This is the start of astronomical fall. Meteorological fall begins on Sept. 1 and makes it easier to keep seasonal weather records.

According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, much of the country will likely experience a warm and dry autumn.

Here’s a closer look at the kind of weather you can expect this fall.

FARMERS' ALMANAC WINTER OUTLOOK CALLS FOR 'COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF SNOW, RAIN, SLEET AND ICE'

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NEW YORK, NEW YORK - NOVEMBER 19: People stand near fall folliage in Central Park during the final days of the fall foliage on November 19, 2021 in New York City. Temperatures have dropped into the 40s and the U.S. National Weather Service has issued a frost advisory issued for parts of New jersey and New York City in the early hours of Saturday morning. (Photo by Alexi Rosenfeld/Getty Images) ( )

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FILE - Autumn colors cover trees as people spend their time by walking outside in the early hours of morning at Overpeck County Park in Leonia district of New Jersey, United States on November 20, 2021. (Photo by Islam Dogru/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images) ( )

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FILE - Rain-soaked autumn leaves. ( )

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FILE - A person walks his dog over fallen leaves during the final days of the fall foliage in Central Park on November 19, 2021 in New York City. (Alexi Rosenfeld)

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NEW YORK, NEW YORK - NOVEMBER 10: People in a row boat ride under Bow Bridge during the fall foliage in Central Park on November 10, 2021 in New York City. People are taking advantage of unseasonably warm weather across the North East this week as temperatures reached close to 70 degrees in New York City today. (Photo by Alexi Rosenfeld/Getty Images) ( )

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Leaves on trees in Wisconsin’s northern forests have already begun changing to their fall colors, drone footage taken near the town of Phelps on Sept. 27, 2021, shows. According to a "fall color report" tracker maintained by the Wisconsin Department of Tourism, many counties in the northern third of the state have already seen their leaves shift to autumnal coloring. This video, taken by Paul Minten, captures the rich palette of fall colors near Phelps, Wisconsin, on the morning of Sept. 27, 2021. (Paul Minten via Storyful)

Temperatures

The temperature outlook for the period of September to November shows that few places will see average temperatures. The warmest weather is expected in the Northeast, South Florida, the Four Corners and northern Alaska.

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The temperature outlook for fall 2024 in the U.S. as of Aug. 15, 2024. (NOAA/CPC / FOX Weather)

Precipitation

The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is Sept. 10, just days after the start of meteorological fall. That means there’s a decent shot that a tropical system could bring heavy rain to the East Coast.

The Northwest is also expected to see above-average precipitation, as is western Alaska. 

Below-average precipitation is likely in much of the central U.S., the Intermountain West, the Southwest and southern Alaska.

HOW TO WATCH FOX WEATHER

The precipitation outlook for fall 2024 in the U.S. as of Aug. 15, 2024. (NOAA/CPC / FOX Weather)

Track the forecast this fall

You can start tracking the forecast for your favorite fall holidays, such as Halloween and Thanksgiving, right now using the FOX Weather app. Tap on the Events tab in the app to get started.