Tropical disturbance in Atlantic inches closer to US; tropical depression or storm could form next week
The odds of development currently stand at a 60% chance over the next seven days. If the system strengthens into a tropical storm, it will be named Debby – the fourth named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.
Tropical disturbance in Atlantic inches closer to US
A tropical disturbance in the Atlantic is inching closer to the U.S., but the details on its potential impacts to the U.S. remain murky. The system may or may not organize into a tropical depression, perhaps even a tropical storm, late in the weekend or early next week as it nears the East Coast.
A tropical disturbance is being tracked in the Atlantic Ocean for the first time since Hurricane Beryl's assault on Texas more than three weeks ago.
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), a well-defined tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern Leeward Islands and the adjacent waters of the southwestern Atlantic and northeastern Caribbean Sea.
"Development of this system is unlikely during the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward over portions of the Greater Antilles," NHC said in its latest outlook. "However, environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive for development after the wave passes the Greater Antilles, and a tropical depression could form this weekend or early next week over the eastern Gulf of Mexico or far southwestern Atlantic Ocean, including in the vicinity of Florida.
Interests across the Greater Antilles, Bahamas and Florida should continue to monitor the progress of this system, the NHC notes.
The disturbance has medium odds of development within a week.
(FOX Weather)
If the disturbance develops, computer forecast models show a variety of outcomes for where it will track and how strong it could become. Any interaction with the mountains on larger Caribbean islands will play a key role in the system's organization, according to the FOX Forecast Center.
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Two large areas of high pressure – one over the southern Plains and the other anchored in the Atlantic near Bermuda – could decide whether the system curls up the Eastern Seaboard, heads for Florida or stays south and tracks into the Gulf of Mexico.
For now, the consensus is that it will move in the general direction of Florida or the Southeast coast late this week and into the weekend.
"Your prep time is going to be about 24 hours, if that," said FOX Weather Meteorologist Britta Merwin if the storm does develop near Florida. "We could see this pull together when we already have rain moving on land. If this does develop, everything's going to happen very quickly. So you need to make sure that you're thinking about that and preparing you and your family for that potential."
(FOX Weather)
If the system strengthens into a tropical storm, it will be named Debby – the fourth named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.
"Florida will have heavy rain no matter what happens from this, so you need to at least be prepared for that," Merwin said. "So Saturday, Sunday and Monday, we know we’re going to have heavy rain across Florida, and flooding is a potential."
(FOX Weather)
Be sure to check back with FOX Weather for updates throughout the week as the forecast for this tropical disturbance becomes clearer.