Hurricane Polo to slam Mexico as monster Cat 5 storm, fuel major flood threat across the Southwest next week
As the weekend progresses, Polo is expected to make a sharp right turn and head directly toward Mexico.
Exclusive analysis: Nor'easter targets Northeast while Hurricane Nolo impacts Hawaii and Polo threatens Mexico
It's going to be a busy weekend in weather, as a nor'easter impacts the East Coast of the U.S., Hurricane Nolo charges at Hawaii and Hurricane Polo makes landfall in Mexico, bringing a surge of moisture to the Southwest U.S. next week. FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross offers exclusive analysis into the latest forecasts.
THE TAKEAWAY
- Hurricane Polo is expected to make a sharp right turn and head directly toward Mexico.
- Several inches of rain are expected, with the threat of mudslides and landslides.
- Hurricane Polo is forecast to spread tropical moisture across the Southwest, triggering a renewed flood threat.
Hurricane Polo continues to be a Category 5 storm as it spins through the East Pacific, forecast to make landfall in Mexico and fuel a renewed flooding threat across the Southwestern U.S. next week.
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Mexico’s Meteorological Service issued tropical storm warnings and watches for parts of southwestern Mexico as Polo tracked toward the coast. However, those alerts have since been discontinued.
Hurricane hunters ventured into the storm once again on Friday afternoon and recorded 180 mph winds, maintaining the storm's Category 5 status.
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As the weekend progresses, Polo is expected to shift north before turning northeastward and approaching Baja California Sur on Monday.
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The storm is forecast to race northward, approaching Cabo San Lucas by Sunday morning before making landfall in Baja California by Monday evening.
"While the system has reached Category 5 intensity for a record-breaking third time in the Eastern Pacific, it is expected to gradually weaken over the weekend as it encounters cooler waters, increased wind shear, and dry air," said the FOX Forecast Center.
Several inches of rain are expected, with the threat of mudslides and landslides.
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According to the FOX Forecast Center, some areas of Baja California could receive up to 8 inches of rain.
In the U.S., moisture associated with Hurricane Polo and Odalys could combine to spread tropical moisture across the Southwest beginning Monday before eventually reaching much of the Lower 48 by midweek.
The renewed threat comes after a week of flash flooding across the Southwest fueled by moisture from Polo. The region is expected to experience a brief lull in rainfall from Friday through Sunday before the storm's impacts return next week.
A recently upgraded level 2 out of 4 threat for flash flooding is in place beginning Monday and continuing into Tuesday across parts of Arizona, southern Utah and New Mexico.
Heading into next week, the tropical moisture plume is expected to interact with an incoming upper-level trough, spreading potentially heavy rain from the Northern Plains to the Southern Plains.
Take a look inside Hurricane Polo
Earlier this week, NOAA Hurricane Hunters flew into one of the strongest hurricanes ever observed in the Pacific basin: Hurricane Polo.
Hurricane Polo underwent extreme rapid intensification Tuesday, exploding into a Category 5 hurricane as its central pressure plunged to 892 millibars. That pressure made Polo the second-lowest pressure ever observed in the Eastern or Central Pacific.
The storm underwent an eyewall replacement cycle overnight Wednesday into Thursday, weakening to a Category 4 hurricane before intensifying back into a Category 5 storm Thursday morning. Polo has dipped up and down in terms of intensity, but currently remains an extremely dangerous Category 5 hurricane, according to the NOAA.
Since 1950, 1,088 hurricanes have been documented, but only nine have recorded central pressures below 900 millibars, placing Polo among the most intense hurricanes ever observed.
LATEST FROM FOX WEATHER HURRICANE SPECIALIST BRYAN NORCROSS
Polo's explosive intensification was historic as well. Its maximum sustained winds increased by 110 mph in just 24 hours, marking the second-fastest rate of rapid intensification ever observed.
With peak winds of 180 mph, Polo is tied with Hurricane Rick from 2009 for the third-highest winds ever recorded in the Pacific. Only Hurricane Patricia in 2015, with winds of 215 mph, and Hurricane Linda in 1997, with winds of 185 mph, have recorded higher maximum winds.
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Polo is also tied for the fourth-highest wind speed ever recorded for any hurricane worldwide, based on observations collected by Hurricane Hunters that flew into the powerful storm this week.
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Polo became the third Category 5 hurricane in the Eastern and Central Pacific this season, joining Genevieve and Lowell, which made a direct hit on Hawaii last month.
The last time the Eastern and Central Pacific produced three Category 5 hurricanes in a single season was in 2018.