El Nino, climate change to likely make next 5 years hottest recorded on Earth, WMO says
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said there is a 98% likelihood that at least one of the next five years, and the five-year period as a whole, will be the warmest on record.
The meaning of El Nino and La Nina
The status of whether the world is being impacted by an El Nino or a La Nina is determined by water temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific. (NOAA)
A warming El Niño expected to develop in the coming months will likely surge global temperatures to record levels until 2027, according to a new update issued by the World Meteorological Organization.
The WMO announced Wednesday there is a 98% chance of at least one in the next five years beating the global temperature record set in 2016, when there was an exceptionally strong El Niño. The chance of the five-year mean for 2023-2027 being the hottest on record is also 98%, the WMO reports.
Typically, an El Niño pattern increases global temperatures in the year after it develops – in this case this would be 2024, the WMO reports. This comes after La Niña's cooling influence ended in March.
"A warming El Niño is expected to develop in the coming months, and this will combine with human-induced climate change to push global temperatures into uncharted territory," WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas said.
The agency also said there is a 66% chance that the annual average near-surface global temperature the next five years will be more than 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels for at least one year.
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The chances the five-year mean will exceed that amount is only 32% which has risen steadily since 2015, according to the Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update produced by the United Kingdom’s Met Office. From 2017 to 2021, there was a 10% chance of exceeding the mark.
"Global mean temperatures are predicted to continue increasing, moving us away further and further away from the climate we are used to," said Leon Hermanson, a Met Office expert scientist who led the report.
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Higher temperatures mean more extreme weather, sea level rise, melting ice and glaciers as well as ocean heat and acidification, according to the WMO.
"This will have far-reaching repercussions for health, food security, water management and the environment. We need to be prepared," Taalas said.
According to the WMO, the average global temperature last year was about 1.15°C (2.1°F) warmer than the 1850-1900 average.
Taalas said this report does not mean that we will permanently exceed the 1.5°C warming level specified in the Paris Agreement, which refers to long-term warming over many years.
"However, WMO is sounding the alarm that we will breach the 1.5°C level on a temporary basis with increasing frequency," he said.