Hurricane Milton threatens to wipe out Florida's west coast beaches, top US geological scientists say

A recent USGS coastal change forecast shows near-total devastation for the state's sandy beaches, with 95% expected to be inundated and 100% experiencing overwash and erosion.

ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. – Top U.S. geological scientists are painting a grim picture of Florida's west coast as Hurricane Milton barrels towards landfall late Wednesday evening in a worst-case scenario.

Milton, one of the strongest hurricanes in over 170 years of recordkeeping in the Atlantic, is taking dead aim at the state and will likely be one of the worst hurricane disasters in U.S. history. Catastrophic storm surge, destructive hurricane-force winds and flooding rain are all expected across the Sunshine State.

A recent U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) coastal change forecast shows near-total devastation for the state's sandy beaches. The agency said 95% are expected to be inundated (continuously underwater) and 100% will experience overwash and erosion. This is the most severe level of coastal change.

Overwash, a dangerous phenomenon in which water surges over sand dunes, is most concerning. With dunes already weakened by Hurricane Helene, Milton could leave coastal communities exposed and vulnerable to flooding and storm impacts.

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"The significance of the coastal change forecast for Milton’s impact to the Florida west coast cannot be overstated," said Kara Doran, a USGS supervisory physical scientist working on the forecast.

This USGS coastal change forecast for Milton is a worst-case scenario, the agency says, that can provide vital insights to help emergency management officials make informed decisions.

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The USGS coastal change forecast will continue to be updated as Milton approaches land. Real-time coastal change forecasts for individual locations along the coast are available here.