Tropical storm alerts loom as Invest 94L threatens to soon become Imelda, possibly affect Southeastern US
The National Hurricane Center says Invest 94L could become a tropical depression in the next day or so, and potentially Tropical Storm Imelda shortly thereafter as the storm moves north through the Bahamas.
Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross provides exclusive analysis on future of Invest 94L
FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross joins us to give his exclusive analysis on the state of the tropics, including Invest 94L, Hurricane Humberto and possible impacts to the Carolinas.
As of Friday at 5:00 PM ET, the National Hurricane Center designated Invest 94L as Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine to begin issuing critical alerts. Continuous coverage of Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine as it strengthens into future Hurricane Imelda has moved here.
MIAMI – Tropical storm alerts could be issued for parts of the Bahamas later Friday as the storm cluster currently designated Invest 94L shows more signs of threatening impacts, while forecasters keep a wary eye on the storm's potential journey toward the southeastern coast of the U.S.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) says Invest 94L could become a tropical depression in the next day or so, and potentially Tropical Storm Imelda shortly thereafter as the storm moves north through the Bahamas.
With possible tropical storm conditions affecting the Bahamas over the weekend, the NHC said 94L will most likely be designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine later Friday.
A potential tropical cyclone permits the NHC to issue routine advisories on a system that has not yet developed into a tropical depression or tropical storm but brings a threat of 39-plus-mph winds to land within 72 hours.
While Invest 94L's exact track remains uncertain in the days ahead, the NHC said Friday that people in the Southeast should keep a close eye on the system.
"While there is significant uncertainty in the long-range track and intensity of the system, the chances of wind, rainfall, and storm surge impacts for a portion of the Southeast U.S. coast during the next several days are increasing," the NHC wrote in a Friday Afternoon outlook.
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FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross agreed, noting that computer models are split on whether likely-Imelda will directly hit the U.S. mainland.
"There is a strong consensus in the various computer forecasts that Imelda will likely track to the north, paralleling the Florida coast at least through the weekend," Norcross said Friday. "About Monday, however, it looks likely to face a fork in the road. Either it will turn right, out to sea, or it will arc left into the Georgia, South Carolina, or North Carolina coast."
Norcross emphasized that forecasts for just-developing systems are subject to large errors and are likely to change.
NOAA's Hurricane Hunters flew reconnaissance missions into Invest 94L Thursday and Friday which will provide the NHC with better data collection in both the upper and lower levels of the atmosphere. This data will help computer forecast models develop a more accurate picture of the track and future intensity of the storm.
ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON ABOUT TO PULL OFF FEAT NOT SEEN IN 90 YEARS
South Carolina's Emergency Management Division monitors Invest 94L.
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States prepare for potential impacts from Invest 94L
South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster said Wednesday that the state's emergency management division is working with the National Weather Service to monitor the development of 94L.
The City of Charleston announced Friday that stormwater pumps had been deployed, and local lake levels had been lowered, among other preparations.
Conway, South Carolina declared a local State of Emergency ahead of the storm and Folly Beach closed its City Hall on Friday.
North Carolina's Emergency Management department said it is also monitoring the latest weather forecasts.
Duke Energy, which services power to 80 counties in North Carolina, says a significant portion of 94L’s possible paths are in their service area.
"Our in house team of meteorologists is following the path of that storm, and we use that forecast to power our damage modeling system," spokesperson Jeff Brooks told FOX Weather. "And that modeling system helps us to identify where we’re likely to see storm impacts. Our goal is always if we can is to position resources at the appropriate places so they’re able to respond quickly when the storm strikes."
Invest 94L likely to become Tropical Storm Imelda near Bahamas
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The NHC said Invest 94L is continuing to produce showers and thunderstorms that are beginning to show signs of organization near eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas.
After that, the NHC said the system is expected to slow down and turn to the northwest when it reaches the southwestern Atlantic over the weekend.
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That’s when the NHC said a tropical depression is likely to form in the vicinity of the Bahamas.
Meanwhile, the NHC said heavy rains from 94L will drench the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and the Turks and Caicos Islands through Saturday.