Flood Watches posted for Los Angeles wildfire burn scars as rain returns to Southern California
But with the rain comes a cost: potential mud and debris flows where the scars remain from those wildfires that have scorched tens of thousands of acres and left neighborhoods in ruins.
Much-needed rain in California bringing risk of flash flooding, debris flows in burn scar areas
Beneficial rain is returning to California, which should help with the ongoing wildfire fight across the Los Angeles area. However, the arrival of rain is also bringing a potentially life-threatening risk of flash flooding, as well as mud and debris flows in recent burn scar area. FOX Weather Meteorologist Kendall Smith has the latest.
LOS ANGELES – The first significant rainfall in several months will spread across Southern California on Sunday, giving a badly needed sip of water to an area parched by drought and devastated by multiple raging wildfires.
But with the rain comes a cost: potential mud and debris flows where the scars remain from those wildfires that have scorched tens of thousands of acres and left neighborhoods in ruins.
An upper-level low swinging in off the Pacific Ocean produced a few showers on Saturday, but rain rates were less than a tenth of an inch per hour.
(FOX Weather)
Rain showers will increase in intensity and coverage as the low pushes inland on Sunday afternoon and the atmosphere becomes more unstable. That’s when the rain may become too much of a good thing in some spots, especially if it comes in heavy spurts.
The National Weather Service said there is a 15-25% chance of thunderstorms across the region, which could bring periods of heavy rainfall that could overwhelm the burn-scar areas. There is also a threat of some small hail and locally high wind gusts.
"This is not all-day rain. It'll be a lot of on-and-off showers throughout the day," FOX Weather Meteorologist Ari Sarsalari said. "They're a little bit hit or miss, but very high likelihood that you're going to get wet at some point."
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This graphic shows the flood alerts in effect in Southern California.
(FOX Weather)
Flood Watches are now in effect from 4 p.m. Sunday through Monday afternoon for potential flash flooding in the burn-scar areas left behind by the deadly Palisades and Eaton fires, as well as the charred areas from the recent Franklin, Hughes and Bridge fires.
The NWS calculated a 10-20% chance of "significant" debris flows in the sensitive Los Angeles-area burn scars.
"Due to the recent wildfires and resulting burn scars, portions of Los Angeles County are at a high risk for mud and rockslides," the Los Angeles County Sheriff's Department warned. "Heavy rainfall, which is forecasted for the area, may exacerbate these conditions, leading to potentially life-threatening situations."
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This graphic shows the forecast rain totals in Southern California.
(FOX Weather)
In addition, soils inside burn scars can contain significant amounts of mud, boulders and vegetation. And officials warned that charred hillsides are in danger of giving way even if there isn't rain. The burned landscape, littered with broken water mains, and the influx of water from firefighting efforts have further destabilized hillsides in the region.
"There’s very little risk from this event if you’re not in or near a wildfire burn area, so this will be a net beneficial rain for 95% of people," UCLA and UC ANR climate scientist Daniel Swain said in a release. "But it could be quite dangerous for the 5% of people who live in or near those fire zones susceptible to debris flows … If you are evacuated, there may be new evacuation orders or warnings for debris flow risk this weekend."
In response to the threat, California's Office of Emergency Services has positioned dozens of emergency crews near the burn-scar areas for a rapid response should flash flooding occur. That includes fire engines, rescue helicopters and a swift water rescue team.
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Rain has been absent in Los Angeles since spring
The sun-kissed Los Angeles area isn’t known for getting much rain, only averaging about 12 inches per year, but this dry stretch has been remarkable even by their standards.
This graphic shows the amount of rain needed to end the drought in portions of Southern California.
(FOX Weather)
Just a few minutes of moderate rain this weekend will likely quickly qualify the day as the city’s wettest day since last spring. Los Angeles’s LAX Airport has only seen three days with measurable rain – and just a paltry 0.01 inches each day at that — since May 5.
Downtown Los Angeles hasn’t fared much better, netting just five days with measurable rain totaling 0.16 inches since May 5.
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Recent rain benchmarks for the Los Angeles area, taken at the Downtown Los Angeles weather station at USC.
(FOX Weather)
About a half-inch to an inch of rain is expected around the Los Angeles area by the end of Monday, with 1-2 inches of rain in the mountains, though the higher elevations will pick up some snow.
"Keep in mind there's a pretty significant drought going on. And this isn't going to be the kind of rain that's going to bust the drought overnight," Sarsalari said. "We would need like a foot of rain to bust the drought, and you wouldn't want that to happen in one event anyway. But this will be about 1-2 inches for a lot of people."
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Containment slowly grows around lingering wildfires
But the storm’s rain and increased humidity will only help the thousands of firefighters still trying to douse the lingering flames of multiple fires still burning in the region.
The Eaton Fire is at 95% containment, while containment of the Palisades Fire is now up to 84%, according to fire officials. The Hughes Fire burning north of Los Angeles is at 90% containment after scorching over 10,000 acres.
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This graphic provides the latest information on the wildfires burning in the Los Angeles area.
(FOX Weather)
A new wildfire, dubbed "Border 2," erupted Friday near Chula Vista, just 9 miles southeast of San Diego.
The blaze, which is currently burning across 6,600 acres with limited containment near the U.S.-Mexico border, has prompted nearly 700 firefighters to respond, according to San Diego County Fire.
The long-range forecast returns to drier weather in the week ahead, but unlike the past several weeks, there doesn’t appear to be any dangerous levels of Santa Ana winds returning anytime soon.