Winter weather fans get glimmer of hope for mid-February despite overall mild forecasts
"I think we have a little more winter weather to get through, but there's a small window here to capitalize on, and it's called the window of February," says FOX Weather Meteorologist Britta Merwin. And this February, that window may crack open around the middle of the month.
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While both Punxsutawney Phil and NOAA's seasonal predictions are predicting a mild end to winter, there are some signs for a last chance of winter weather coming later in February. FOX Weather Meteorologist Britta Merwin gives winter weather fans a bit of hope.
Several signs – from NOAA's seasonal prediction forecasts to Punxsutawney Phil – are pointing to an overall mild end to winter and a head start on spring.
But for winter weather fans, all hope is not lost.
"I think we have a little more winter weather to get through," FOX Weather Meteorologist Britta Merwin said. "But there's a small window here to capitalize on, and it's called the window of February." This February, that window may crack open around the middle of the month.
It could be a final chance as winter weather becomes more challenging once we get past February.
"The sun angle, for instance -- we're going to be going into springtime, and each day gets longer and longer (and) we get more sunlight," Merwin added. "We're battling to find the cold air, and it gets harder to pull off bigger snowstorms for many regions across the U.S. as we go into March."
February temperature outlook
(FOX Weather)
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Merwin said there are exceptions.
"Some areas that had their biggest snow months in March is Colorado," she said. "You guys are one of them where your spring snowstorms are epic."
For areas like the East Coast, the farther we push the timeline, the harder it will get in those stretches of warm weather that pop up from time to time.
"The (warm stretches) come, they become more dramatic, and they also last longer," Merwin said.
Signs of cooler weather mid-month
NOAA's seasonal forecast for February has high confidence that the northern tier – where you would expect a lot of snow in February – will likely be warmer than average in February.
"Now, take this with a little grain of salt," Merwin said. "This is an average for the entire month -- (as in) every single day in February, we'll add up the temperatures and divide it by the amount of days. It doesn't mean you're not going to have cold weather, just that means that the majority of it is going to be warm, so we can still get cold air."
Computer models show a small chunk of time in the middle of February when there are indications of potential cooler weather via the Arctic Oscillation going into a negative phase.
Arctic Oscillation Trend as of early February.
(FOX Weather)
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"It means that arctic air is going to break away from the poles and move into the northern part of the U.S.," Merwin said. "This is what's key for winter weather across areas like the Great Lakes in the Northeast. We have to have that arctic air move into the country for us to get big snowstorms."
The missing ingredient then would be having storms to tap into the colder air.
"Which, guess what? That's going to be happening as well," Merwin said. "The middle part of February, our long range computer models or mid-range computer models are showing that the Northern Atlantic Oscillation, which controls the storm track, will also be a negative phase." That would steer the storm track into the East and Northeast.
North Atlantic Oscillation trend as of early February.
(FOX Weather)
The data combined "are showing that we not only will have the cold air present, but possibly we could have the storms present as well," Merwin said. "So although February might come in above average, I think we'll have that small window of time when I'm saying 'there's a chance' past that. It's going to get harder to pull off, folks. But no matter what winter has to dish out and the upcoming spring, we've got your back here on FOX Weather."