Increasing chances of tropical development in Gulf of Mexico as new area to watch in Atlantic emerges
Forecast models indicate a new area of low pressure is expected to form over the western Caribbean Sea by early next week, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Next tropical threat brewing for Gulf of Mexico
The National Hurricane Center is tracking multiple areas to watch, including the next potential threat for the Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Depression 12 is likely to become a hurricane by mid week in the Atlantic but head north.
MIAMI — The Southeast and mid-Atlantic are still reeling from Hurricane Helene’s deadly impact last week, but forecasters say a new threat may emerge in the Gulf of Mexico as odds for tropical development there increase.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) says computer forecast models indicate a new area of low pressure is expected to form over the western Caribbean Sea by early in the week.
(FOX Weather)
That area of low pressure could then find environmental conditions favorable for development as it moves into the western Gulf of Mexico by the middle of the week, where a tropical depression could form.
The Cental America Gyre – which had a big hand in the birth of Hurricane Helene – is set to redevelop, but with a few important differences.
"The CAG is nowhere near as strong in the computer forecasts this time as it was before Helene formed," FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross said. "And the upper air pattern is quite different."
It’s too early to tell where or how strong the system will become in the days after, but so far the NHC is giving medium odds of developing into at least a tropical depression within the next seven days. Those odds, however, jumped from 30% to 50% over the weekend.
"The atmospheric pattern looks reasonably conducive for a tropical system to try to form and then track from the western Caribbean toward the Gulf of Mexico late in the week," Norcross said. "The same caveats we discussed last week are still important. All forecasts for undeveloped or just developing systems are subject to change and large errors. Don't focus on any specific forecasts at this point."
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Tropical Depression 12 forms with area to watch on its heels
(FOX Weather)
Tropical Depression 12 has formed in the Atlantic Ocean and is expected to become a major hurricane by the end of the workweek. And while the tropical depression is expected to become a fish storm, it is It's too early to tell if it will pose a threat to the U.S. at this time.
Also in the Atlantic are Tropical Storm Joyce and Isaac, which are both weakening as they make their trek in open waters.
(FOX Weather)
On Sunday morning, the NHC highlighted a new area for possible tropical development off the coast of Africa.
The NHC said the tropical wave is currently producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity, but some gradual development of the system could occur over the next several days while it moves slowly over the eastern Atlantic Ocean.
The NHC is giving the system a low chance of developing over the next 48 hours and a medium chance of development over the next week. A tropical depression could form during the middle or latter part of this week, NHC said.