Hurricane Rafael forecast to meander Gulf of Mexico after lashing Cuba with powerful winds, flooding rain
Rafael remains a Category 2 hurricane as of the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center. It’s the first Category 2 storm to enter the Gulf of Mexico in November since Hurricane Ida in 2009.
Hurricane Rafael to weaken as late-season storm meanders in Gulf of Mexico
Hurricane Rafael remains a Category 2 storm after slamming Cuba with flooding rain and damaging winds. But conditions in the Gulf of Mexico are not favorable for the late-season storm, and it should begin to weaken.
MIAMI – Powerful Hurricane Rafael slammed into Cuba as a major hurricane on Wednesday. The late-season tropical system has now emerged in the Gulf of Mexico, but the question now turns to where it is going next.
HURRICANE RAFAEL TRACKER: FORECAST CONE, SPAGHETTI PLOTS, MAPS, ALERTS AND MORE
![A man walks on a street during the pass of the Hurricane Rafael's eye in Pueblo Candelaria, Artemisa Province, 65 km west of Havana, on November 6, 2024. Hurricane Rafael knocked out power to all of Cuba on Wednesday as it made landfall on the island still reeling from a recent blackout and a previous major storm, the national power company said. (Photo by ADALBERTO ROQUE / AFP) (Photo by ADALBERTO ROQUE/AFP via Getty Images)]()
Image 1 of 11A man walks on a street during the pass of the Hurricane Rafael's eye in Pueblo Candelaria, Artemisa Province, 65 km west of Havana, on November 6, 2024. Hurricane Rafael knocked out power to all of Cuba on Wednesday as it made landfall on the island still reeling from a recent blackout and a previous major storm, the national power company said. (ADALBERTO ROQUE / AFP)
![People walk on the streets during the pass of the Hurricane Rafael's eye in Pueblo Candelaria, Artemisa Province, 65 km west of Havana, on November 6, 2024. Hurricane Rafael knocked out power to all of Cuba on Wednesday as it made landfall on the island still reeling from a recent blackout and a previous major storm, the national power company said. (Photo by ADALBERTO ROQUE / AFP) (Photo by ADALBERTO ROQUE/AFP via Getty Images)]()
Image 2 of 11People walk on the streets during the pass of the Hurricane Rafael's eye in Pueblo Candelaria, Artemisa Province, 65 km west of Havana, on November 6, 2024. Hurricane Rafael knocked out power to all of Cuba on Wednesday as it made landfall on the island still reeling from a recent blackout and a previous major storm, the national power company said. (ADALBERTO ROQUE / AFP)
![Heavy rain is pictured after the landfall of Hurricane Rafael in Pueblo Candelaria, Artemisa Province, 65 km west of Havana, on November 6, 2024. Hurricane Rafael knocked out power to all of Cuba on Wednesday as it made landfall on the island still reeling from a recent blackout and a previous major storm, the national power company said. (Photo by ADALBERTO ROQUE / AFP) (Photo by ADALBERTO ROQUE/AFP via Getty Images)]()
Image 3 of 11Heavy rain is pictured after the landfall of Hurricane Rafael in Pueblo Candelaria, Artemisa Province, 65 km west of Havana, on November 6, 2024. Hurricane Rafael knocked out power to all of Cuba on Wednesday as it made landfall on the island still reeling from a recent blackout and a previous major storm, the national power company said. (ADALBERTO ROQUE / AFP)
![Rescue workers walk on a darkened street due to a blackout after the pass of hurricane Rafael in Havana, on November 6, 2024. Hurricane Rafael left Cuba on Wednesday night, leaving the island in darkness with widespread power outages and destruction in some villages after hitting as a powerful Category 3 hurricane. (Photo by Yamil LAGE / AFP) (Photo by YAMIL LAGE/AFP via Getty Images)]()
Image 4 of 11Rescue workers walk on a darkened street due to a blackout after the pass of hurricane Rafael in Havana, on November 6, 2024. Hurricane Rafael left Cuba on Wednesday night, leaving the island in darkness with widespread power outages and destruction in some villages after hitting as a powerful Category 3 hurricane. (YAMIL LAGE/AFP via Getty Images)
![The waves and winds pick up in Key West, Florida from Hurricane Rafael on Nov. 6, 2024.]()
Image 5 of 11The waves and winds pick up in Key West, Florida from Hurricane Rafael on Nov. 6, 2024. (FOX Weather)
![The waves and winds pick up in Key West, Florida from Hurricane Rafael on Nov. 6, 2024.]()
Image 6 of 11The waves and winds pick up in Key West, Florida from Hurricane Rafael on Nov. 6, 2024. (FOX Weather)
![The waves and winds pick up in Key West, Florida from Hurricane Rafael on Nov. 6, 2024.]()
Image 7 of 11The waves and winds pick up in Key West, Florida from Hurricane Rafael on Nov. 6, 2024. (FOX Weather)
![People protect the windows of a restaurant with cardboard ahead of the arrival of tropical storm Rafael in Havana on November 5, 2024. Cuba was bracing for Tropical Storm Rafael, which is expected to make landfall on the island as a hurricane on November 6, compounding the misery wrought by a massive blackout and Hurricane Oscar. (Photo by ADALBERTO ROQUE / AFP) (Photo by ADALBERTO ROQUE/AFP via Getty Images)]()
Image 8 of 11People protect the windows of a restaurant with cardboard ahead of the arrival of tropical storm Rafael in Havana on November 5, 2024. Cuba was bracing for Tropical Storm Rafael, which is expected to make landfall on the island as a hurricane on November 6, compounding the misery wrought by a massive blackout and Hurricane Oscar. (ADALBERTO ROQUE/AFP via Getty Images)
![Fishermen protect their boats ahead of the arrival of tropical storm Rafael in Havana on November 5, 2024. Cuba was bracing for Tropical Storm Rafael, which is expected to make landfall on the island as a hurricane on November 6, compounding the misery wrought by a massive blackout and Hurricane Oscar. (Photo by ADALBERTO ROQUE / AFP) (Photo by ADALBERTO ROQUE/AFP via Getty Images)]()
Image 9 of 11Fishermen protect their boats ahead of the arrival of tropical storm Rafael in Havana on November 5, 2024. Cuba was bracing for Tropical Storm Rafael, which is expected to make landfall on the island as a hurricane on November 6, compounding the misery wrought by a massive blackout and Hurricane Oscar. (ADALBERTO ROQUE/AFP via Getty Images)
![Workers protect a facility ahead of the arrival of tropical storm Rafael in Havana on November 5, 2024. Cuba was bracing for Tropical Storm Rafael, which is expected to make landfall on the island as a hurricane on November 6, compounding the misery wrought by a massive blackout and Hurricane Oscar. (Photo by ADALBERTO ROQUE / AFP) (Photo by ADALBERTO ROQUE/AFP via Getty Images)]()
Image 10 of 11Workers protect a facility ahead of the arrival of tropical storm Rafael in Havana on November 5, 2024. Cuba was bracing for Tropical Storm Rafael, which is expected to make landfall on the island as a hurricane on November 6, compounding the misery wrought by a massive blackout and Hurricane Oscar. (ADALBERTO ROQUE/AFP via Getty Images)
![Fishermen remove their boats from the water ahead of the arrival of tropical storm Rafael in Havana on November 5, 2024. Cuba was bracing for Tropical Storm Rafael, which is expected to make landfall on the island as a hurricane on November 6, compounding the misery wrought by a massive blackout and Hurricane Oscar. (Photo by ADALBERTO ROQUE / AFP) (Photo by ADALBERTO ROQUE/AFP via Getty Images)]()
Image 11 of 11Fishermen remove their boats from the water ahead of the arrival of tropical storm Rafael in Havana on November 5, 2024. Cuba was bracing for Tropical Storm Rafael, which is expected to make landfall on the island as a hurricane on November 6, compounding the misery wrought by a massive blackout and Hurricane Oscar. (ADALBERTO ROQUE/AFP via Getty Images)
The Fox Forecast Center said that what’s happening now is a rare occurrence. Rafael remains a Category 2 hurricane as of the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). It’s the first Category 2 storm to enter the Gulf of Mexico in November since Hurricane Ida in 2009.
Cuba and parts of the western Caribbean no doubt took the brunt of the storm, which brought damaging, hurricane-force winds, flooding rain, and a potentially deadly storm surge.
A weather station in the Casablanca area of Havana reported a wind gust of 93 mph around the time of Rafael's landfall on Wednesday afternoon. According to a report from Reuters, Cuba was plunged into darkness due to the impacts of the storm.
Rescue workers walk on a darkened street due to a blackout after the pass of hurricane Rafael in Havana, on November 6, 2024. Hurricane Rafael left Cuba on Wednesday night, leaving the island in darkness with widespread power outages and destruction in some villages after hitting as a powerful Category 3 hurricane. (Photo by Yamil LAGE / AFP) (Photo by YAMIL LAGE/AFP via Getty Images)
(Getty Images)
All tropical alerts have been dropped and conditions are expected to gradually improve across the region, but millions of people along the U.S. Gulf Coast will be closely monitoring the hurricane’s progress as it slowly churns over the Gulf of Mexico.
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Where is Hurricane Rafael?
(FOX Weather)
As of the latest advisory from the NHC, Rafael is about 200 miles west of Key West, Florida, and moving northwest at 9 mph. Rafael has maximum sustained winds of 105 mph, and it is expected to weaken as the storm meanders in the Gulf of Mexico for the next several days.
What's the forecast for Hurricane Rafael?
(FOX Weather)
The FOX Forecast Center said that computer forecast models strongly agree that Rafael will quickly turn to the west and begin its journey toward the central Gulf of Mexico.
The steering currents assisting Rafael on its path from the Caribbean to the Gulf will begin to drastically weaken, allowing the hurricane to meander in the central Gulf through the weekend and into next week.
The FOX Forecast Center added that there is an increasing consensus that Rafael will slowly move toward Texas or Mexico and steadily weaken as it does so.
(FOX Weather)
However, there is a chance that Rafael could make a turn to the north, but the FOX Forecast Center says that’s looking less likely.
That’s because Rafael will be moving into a very dry atmosphere and strong upper-level headwinds. Due to the hostile atmospheric conditions, Rafael could simply dissipate.
If Rafael survives into next week, the FOX Forecast Center said it could be because it has moved just far enough south in the western Gulf of Mexico to avoid those hostile conditions. In that case, the Mexican coast could be threatened.