South braces for severe weather blitz as first week of March ushers in uptick of spring tornadoes
Damaging winds and large hail will threaten Oklahoma and Texas starting Sunday, and a more substantial risk is looming by Tuesday as a more active severe weather pattern emerges – right on cue for the start of March.
Meteorological spring kicks off with severe storms this weekend
The FOX Forecast Center is tracking a potential return to a more active severe weather pattern as March approaches. The shift begins this weekend as a system develops out of the Rockies late Saturday into Sunday.
As meteorological spring arrives Saturday, the South is gearing up for a multiday siege of severe weather.
Damaging winds and large hail will threaten Oklahoma and Texas starting Sunday, and a more substantial risk is looming by Tuesday as a more active severe weather pattern emerges – right on cue for the start of March.
MARCH BEGINS UPTICK IN SPRING TORNADOES ACROSS U.S.
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Tracking multiple threats starting Sunday
The pattern shift begins this weekend as a storm system moves out of the Rockies late Saturday and into Sunday. While there are still many uncertainties regarding the evolution of this system, a potent dryline – a boundary separating a humid air mass from a much drier air mass – will be the primary driver of severe thunderstorm potential, the FOX Forecast Center said.
The developing dryline will push through Texas and Oklahoma late Sunday, with moisture surging ahead of it to support scattered severe thunderstorms, the FOX Forecast Center said. The exact location and intensity of these storms remain uncertain, but at this time, the overall threat appears to be on the lower end.
The main hazards will likely be large hail and damaging winds, with only a very low tornado threat.
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One key limiting factor is the available storm energy, known as CAPE, which currently looks quite low, the FOX Forecast Center noted. While wind shear – the change in wind speed and direction with height – across the region is relatively strong, the lack of instability will likely prevent widespread thunderstorm development and significantly reduce the tornado potential.
However, this system could be the precursor to a more active period ahead.
Watching more substantial threat starting Tuesday
Another storm system will follow closely on its heels, with a potential severe weather threat emerging by Monday or Tuesday.
A Level 2 out of 5 severe storm threat has been issued by the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center for Tuesday from parts of East Texas into the lower and mid-Mississippi Valley.
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While details remain uncertain, the South should stay alert throughout the first full week of March, the FOX Forecast Center said.
DOES MARCH REALLY COME IN LIKE A LION AND GO OUT LIKE A LAMB?
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March begins severe weather season in US
In the early spring, the jet stream remains quite strong as it begins its northward migration out of the southern U.S. This causes the threat of tornadoes to also spread farther north during March and into April and May.
An average of 92 tornadoes occur in the U.S. each March. Although that only ranks as the nation's fifth most active month for twisters, it's more than double February's average tornado count of 44.
Average tornadoes by month.
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As a whole, the U.S. averages 1,333 tornadoes annually, of which more than half tend to occur between April and June.