30 million brace for ‘significant’ severe weather from Texas to Mississippi Tuesday as March roars to life
Damaging winds and large hail will threaten Oklahoma and Texas starting Sunday, and a more substantial risk is looming by Tuesday as a more active severe weather pattern emerges – right on cue for the start of March.
Potential multiday severe weather outbreak looms for southern, eastern US beginning Monday
The FOX Forecast Center is tracking a potential severe weather outbreak across the southern and eastern U.S. as the calendar flips to March and meteorological spring begins. Two separate disturbances rolling in from the Southwest may fire up severe storms across the South on Sunday and again from late Monday through Wednesday, while the midweek threat also spreads up the East Coast to the mid-Atlantic states. The Tuesday into Wednesday threat appears to be the most significant.
The chances of a "significant severe weather threat" in the South next week are continuing to grow just as the U.S. and other nations in the Northern Hemisphere usher in the start of meteorological spring.
The FOX Forecast Center is continuing to monitor two separate disturbances that are expected to move across the country, which could produce rounds of severe weather on Sunday, and then again Tuesday and Wednesday.
Storms could erupt on Sunday
At this time, the FOX Forecast Center says next week’s severe weather threat looks to be more substantial than Sunday's risk.
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Sunday’s severe storm threat will take shape as a weak disturbance pushes out of the Rockies and into the Plains.
As that happens, forecasters say a dryline – a boundary separating a humid air mass from a much drier air mass – will develop and push through portions of Texas and Oklahoma, firing up thunderstorms as it does so.
Some of those thunderstorms could turn severe and produce hail and damaging wind gusts.
But overall, a lack of atmospheric energy will limit the number of strong storms.
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Supercell thunderstorms, strong tornadoes possible next week
(FOX Weather)
The FOX Forecast Center said another storm system will develop starting on Tuesday across portions of the South, and shift to the Southeast up the Interstate 95 corridor on the East Coast into the mid-Atlantic on Wednesday.
Around 30 million people from East Texas into the lower and mid-Mississippi Valley will be at risk of severe weather on Tuesday.
There will be the potential for damaging wind, hail and tornadoes.
"Computer models are showing with high confidence the classic ingredients for widespread severe weather coming together," wrote Senior Meteorologist Greg Diamond.
March 4 Severe Setup
The FOX Forecast Center underscored damaging wind as the primary threat.
NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center says portions of eastern Arkansas, northern Louisiana, most of Mississippi and the southwestern corner of Tennessee remain under a Level 3 out of 5 risk of severe weather on its 5-point severe thunderstorm risk scale.
FOX Weather Meteorologist Craig Herrera highlighted the potential for nighttime tornadoes.
"Heavy rain will be the limiting factor on being able to see some of these storms," Herrera said.
The total impact of both Sunday's and next week's severe storms also have the potential to bring flooding to parts of Tennessee and Kentucky, which are still recovering from major flooding over the last two weeks. At least 23 people have died in Kentucky alone from widespread flooding that started on Feb. 15.
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Erosion along Kentucky riverbanks threatens roads, homes
Authorities in the central region of the Blue Grass State are warning that the impacts from a deadly winter storm are continuing, with sections of riverbanks seen collapsing over the last several days.
Specifics remain uncertain, but forecasters say multiple rounds of severe weather, including the development of supercell thunderstorms and an eventual squall line, could bring all severe weather threats, including strong tornadoes.
At this time, it remains uncertain whether the potential severe weather will impact Mardi Gras celebrations in New Orleans.
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(FOX Weather)
The threat will then shift to the Southeast and mid-Atlantic on Wednesday, but it’s still too early to determine exactly what types of extreme weather are possible.
The SPC placed portions of six states from Alabama to Virginia in a Level 2 out of 5 threat.
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March begins severe weather season in US
In the early spring, the jet stream remains quite strong as it begins its northward migration out of the southern U.S. This causes the threat of tornadoes to also spread farther north during March and into April and May.
An average of 92 tornadoes occur in the U.S. each March. Although that only ranks as the nation's fifth most active month for twisters, it's more than double February's average tornado count of 44.
Average tornadoes by month.
(FOX Weather)
As a whole, the U.S. averages 1,333 tornadoes annually, of which more than half tend to occur between April and June.