Dangerous severe weather threat builds from Southern Plains to Upper Midwest during final week of April

DES MOINES, Iowa – A spring storm system poised to sweep across the heartland during the final week of April is expected to bring a dangerous, multi-day severe weather event, with forecasters closely monitoring conditions from Oklahoma City and Tulsa to Minneapolis and Duluth.

The threat begins Monday, with the greatest risk appearing to center on Iowa and surrounding portions of Kansas, Minnesota and Wisconsin, where an intensifying low-level jet could increase both the coverage and severity of thunderstorms.

The FOX Forecast Center warns all modes of severe weather will be possible, including large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes, with the event likely to be more organized than what the Plains have recently experienced.

"So, we’re going to see the Gulf of America open for business, but it’s not just there," said FOX Weather meteorologist Bob Van Dillen. "It goes all the way down to the Caribbean, and it pumps it up. The dew point forecast for Minneapolis on Monday afternoon is 63 degrees."

Uncertainty remains regarding how far south the severe threat may extend, as capping – what amounts to an atmospheric lid that suppresses storm development - could limit thunderstorm activity in parts of the southern Plains, but it is not expected to pose a problem north of Interstate 70.

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The threat of severe weather is also not expected to end Monday.

As the system shifts eastward, additional rounds of thunderstorms will develop on Tuesday, particularly across parts of the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys.

NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a broad area from the Great Lakes to Texas as being at risk for severe weather into Tuesday.

While upper-level support is expected to weaken somewhat by then, enough instability and wind shear will likely remain in place to support continued threats of hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes.

Cities such as Detroit, Indianapolis and St. Louis, Missouri, are all included in Tuesday’s threat zone.

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Active Month for Severe Weather

Despite the ongoing rounds of storms, more severe weather chances are expected through the end of the month.

Although specific forecast details remain uncertain, forecasters anticipate the possibility of additional reports of large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes. 

A seasonal shift in storm activity from the Southeast to the Plains and Midwest is typical during the latter half of meteorological spring.

"We're kind of seeing this late-season shift as we head into May now," said FOX Weather meteorologist Jane Minar. "Severe weather has largely been focused on the Mid-South and Southeast. Now we’re seeing it push back toward the northwest and into the Upper Midwest - Iowa, in particular."

May is typically the most active month for tornadoes, with April and June usually ranking second and third. 

During a typical April, about 180 to 200 tornadoes are reported nationwide, but so far in 2025, the SPC has received preliminary reports of more than 250 twisters.

These reports will be reviewed and verified in the coming weeks to determine a final count, but the month will finish above average for activity.

Reports of hailstones so far in the year are closer to average, but accounts of damaging winds are running more than 200% above normal - signaling an especially windy period across the U.S. during the spring.