7 million in Texas included in Hurricane Beryl's forecast cone as deadly storm charges across Caribbean
Thursday will be a big day that the FOX Forecast Center will have to monitor where Hurricane Beryl hits the Yucatan. If there is an impact farther to the north, closer to Cancun, then that northerly trajectory is going to put Texas more at play for effects from Beryl.
Hurricane Beryl moving away from Cayman Islands on path toward Mexico
Hurricane Beryl remains a powerful Category 3 hurricane as it begins to pull away from the Cayman Islands and head toward Mexico.
Nearly 7 million people in South Texas are within the forecast cone for Hurricane Beryl's potential early next week, posing risks of heavy rains, hazardous rip currents and powerful winds.
"If I lived in Texas, and I have lived in Texas, this would be a storm that I would be watching closely," FOX Weather Meteorologist Britta Merwin said. "The possible impacts would be Sunday into Monday."
According to the National Hurricane Center, the risk of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall for southern Texas later this weekend is increasing.
Beryl could also create life-threatening beach conditions along much of the Gulf Coast beginning Friday night and continuing through the weekend.
HURRICANE BERYL ON PATH TOWARD MEXICO'S YUCATAN PENINSULA AFTER SLAMMING JAMAICA, CAYMAN ISLANDS
(FOX Weather)
After peaking in intensity Tuesday morning, the slightly weaker but still extremely powerful Beryl is taking direct aim at Mexico's Yucatán Peninsula. Current forecasts have Beryl arriving at the Yucatan shores just to the south of Cozumel and Cancun as a Cagetory 2 storm early Friday.
There is reasonable certainty that Beryl will track across the Yucatán into the Gulf. At that point, its forward speed will slow since the high-pressure system to the north will be moving away.
Saildrone captures video of Hurricane Beryl’s fury in Caribbean
Saildrone Inc. said its uncrewed surface vehicle captured waves heights of 25 feet south of Puerto Rico. Hurricane Beryl was a Category 5, at the time, the strongest any hurricane had been in June.
The future track depends on Beryl's strength, how far north it is, how fast it gets to the Gulf and the exact position of that blocking high-pressure to the north.
BERYL TRACKER: LIVE FORECAST, TROPICAL WEATHER ALERTS, SPAGHETTI MODELS AND MORE
(FOX Weather)
The National Hurricane Center is forecasting a tropical storm or a weak hurricane in the Gulf as the storm eventually approaches landfall late Sunday close to the Mexico-Texas border but could change in the hours before landfall.
"It should be noted that the (computer) models suggest that the best chance for re-intensification could be during the last 12-18 hours before the western Gulf landfall, with the storm slow to intensify before that time," the National Hurricane Center wrote in its Thursday evening forecast discussion.
Merwin agreed: "Sometimes we can have that last-minute punch from a tropical storm into a Category 1 hurricane, but that wouldn't change the impact," she said.
(FOX Weather)
The impact would likely be rain, Merwin adds. Far South Texas, including Brownsville and Port Mansfield, are in a Level 2 out of 4 threat for flash flooding on Sunday into early Monday. Beryl's forecast cone includes those two cities plus Corpus Christi. Initial forecasts suggest as much as 3-5 inches of rain along the coastal areas from Brownsville to near Houston.
Any of the outer rain bands could also produce tropical storm-force gusts and even spin up an isolated tornado, meteorologists with the National Weather Service office in Corpus Christi, Texas said Thursday. Winds could increase as early as Sunday morning with peak gusts expected Sunday evening.
"Regardless of exact track, an increase in dangerous rip currents/tidal runup along the coast is expected over the Holiday Weekend," NWS Corpus Christi said. "Seas will begin to increase as well. This will make for dangerous swimming conditions!"