Tropical Depression 1C forms in Pacific and is heading in Hawaii's direction

Update as of 5 p.m. ET/11 a.m. HT on Thursday, Aug. 22: Tropical Storm Hone has formed. Please head here for the latest forecast and impacts information on Tropical Storm Hone. 

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HONOLULU – Forecasters are tracking yet another tropical cyclone in the Pacific, with the system expected to make its closest approach to Hawaii by the start of next week.

Tropical Depression One C, formerly known as Invest 91E, joins major Hurricane Gilma to the east of the new tropical depression.

Both are expected to head in the general direction of Hawaii, but forecasters warn that the magnitude of impacts to the islands, if any, are unknown.

At the very least, the tropical cyclones could aid in the production of large seas and giant waves, which can lead to coastal flooding and be deadly for beachgoers.

If either system ventures less than 150 miles or so away from the islands, the potential impacts would increase to include gusty winds and heavy rainfall.

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Where is Tropical Depression 1C?

Tropical Depression One C will venture in the direction of the archipelago but is about 1,190 miles away from Hilo, Hawaii.

The system is generally moving west at 14 mph and is anticipated to gradually strengthen over the next few days.

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What is the forecast for Tropical Depression 1C?

On the forecast track, the system is expected to be in the vicinity of Hawaii by this weekend. It is forecast to remain south of the islands, which would likely limit the number of impacts to the 50th state.

Hurricane Hunters are conducting surveillance flights around the system through the weekend. Data collected during missions will give forecasters a sense of how strong the system is and help forecast models by computing better outputs.

"It is the peak of hurricane season here in Hawaii, and now is a good time to make sure that you and your family are prepared," the National Weather Service office in Honolulu said.

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Where is Hurricane Gilma?

Gilma is the second in a line of tropical cyclones that are generally working west or west-northwest.

According to the National Hurricane Center, the cyclone was a Category 3 hurricane but was expected to reach Category 4 strength later Thursday or Thurday night.

The hurricane’s trajectory means that whatever is left by the large storm could be in the vicinity of the Hawaiian Islands by the end of the month. However, its future structure will mean the difference between just increased waves and an event that is more impactful.

When will we know more about Gilma’s forecast?

It will likely be at least a week before a more definitive forecast can be given for Hurricane Gilma and its potential impact on the Hawaiian Islands.

The hurricane is more than 2,000 miles away from the islands, and the archipelago is not in the forecast cone. That is not expected to change for days, if not longer.

Hawaii's hurricane history

On average, the Hawaiian Islands see a direct landfall every decade or two, but impacts by near brushes are more common, with increased periods of waves and wind.

Just over a year ago, a series of wind-driven wildfires were triggered by a significant pressure gradient, with a ridge of high pressure to the north of the islands and a major hurricane named Dora to the south.

A recurrence is unlikely in this case, as the 2023 setup is considered by some forecasters to have been a once-in-a-generation event.