Hurricane Rafael moves into Gulf of Mexico after Category 3 landfall in Cuba
The National Hurricane Center said Rafael made landfall at 4:15 p.m. ET in the Cuban province of Artemisa, just east of Playa Majana. Maximum sustained winds at landfall were estimated to be 115 mph.
Center of Hurricane Rafael moves into southeastern Gulf of Mexico
The latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center keeps Rafael as a Category 2 storm as it passes through Cuba and enters the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Nov. 6, 2024.
Editor's note: Hurricane Rafael has emerged in the Gulf of Mexico after making landfall in Cuba. Updates on this story have moved here.
MIAMI – Hurricane Rafael made landfall in Cuba Wednesday evening as a Category 3 hurricane before beginning to weaken as it moved toward the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. However, Cuba continues to be battered by damaging winds, flooding rain and a life-threatening storm surge.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) said Rafael made landfall at 4:15 p.m. ET in the Cuban province of Artemisa, just east of Playa Majana. Maximum sustained winds at landfall were estimated to be 115 mph. The interaction with land caused Rafael to weaken to a Category 2 hurricane as it moved farther inland across western Cuba.
As the island nation gets blasted by Rafael, millions of people along the U.S. Gulf Coast from Texas to Florida are keeping their eyes on the hurricane to see where the storm is headed after it emerges in the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday night.
HURRICANE RAFAEL TRACKER: FORECAST CONE, SPAGHETTI PLOTS, MAPS, ALERTS AND MORE
Watch: Strong winds begin to batter Cayman Islands as Hurricane Rafael approaches
Video shows winds from Hurricane Rafael starting to batter the Cayman Islands as the storm approached the area on Tuesday, Nov. 6, 2024.
The NHC said that even though Rafael briefly weakened while it spun across western Cuba, the storm is forecast to remain at hurricane strength (74 mph or greater) when it enters the Gulf.
Rafael has been lashing portions of the western Caribbean on its journey to Cuba and the Gulf of Mexico, and the NHC said it's concerned that torrential rain could lead to flash flooding and mudslides in the higher terrain of Cuba.
A weather station in the Casablanca area of Havana reported a wind gust of 93 mph around the time of Rafael's landfall.
![The waves and winds pick up in Key West, Florida from Hurricane Rafael on Nov. 6, 2024.]()
Image 1 of 7The waves and winds pick up in Key West, Florida from Hurricane Rafael on Nov. 6, 2024. ( )
![The waves and winds pick up in Key West, Florida from Hurricane Rafael on Nov. 6, 2024.]()
Image 2 of 7The waves and winds pick up in Key West, Florida from Hurricane Rafael on Nov. 6, 2024. ( )
![Workers protect a facility ahead of the arrival of tropical storm Rafael in Havana on November 5, 2024. Cuba was bracing for Tropical Storm Rafael, which is expected to make landfall on the island as a hurricane on November 6, compounding the misery wrought by a massive blackout and Hurricane Oscar. (Photo by ADALBERTO ROQUE / AFP) (Photo by ADALBERTO ROQUE/AFP via Getty Images)]()
Image 3 of 7Workers protect a facility ahead of the arrival of tropical storm Rafael in Havana on November 5, 2024. Cuba was bracing for Tropical Storm Rafael, which is expected to make landfall on the island as a hurricane on November 6, compounding the misery wrought by a massive blackout and Hurricane Oscar. (Photo by ADALBERTO ROQUE / AFP) (Photo by ADALBERTO ROQUE/AFP via Getty Images) ( )
![People protect the windows of a restaurant with cardboard ahead of the arrival of tropical storm Rafael in Havana on November 5, 2024. Cuba was bracing for Tropical Storm Rafael, which is expected to make landfall on the island as a hurricane on November 6, compounding the misery wrought by a massive blackout and Hurricane Oscar. (Photo by ADALBERTO ROQUE / AFP) (Photo by ADALBERTO ROQUE/AFP via Getty Images)]()
Image 4 of 7People protect the windows of a restaurant with cardboard ahead of the arrival of tropical storm Rafael in Havana on November 5, 2024. Cuba was bracing for Tropical Storm Rafael, which is expected to make landfall on the island as a hurricane on November 6, compounding the misery wrought by a massive blackout and Hurricane Oscar. (Photo by ADALBERTO ROQUE / AFP) (Photo by ADALBERTO ROQUE/AFP via Getty Images) ( )
![Fishermen protect their boats ahead of the arrival of tropical storm Rafael in Havana on November 5, 2024. Cuba was bracing for Tropical Storm Rafael, which is expected to make landfall on the island as a hurricane on November 6, compounding the misery wrought by a massive blackout and Hurricane Oscar. (Photo by ADALBERTO ROQUE / AFP) (Photo by ADALBERTO ROQUE/AFP via Getty Images)]()
Image 5 of 7Fishermen protect their boats ahead of the arrival of tropical storm Rafael in Havana on November 5, 2024. Cuba was bracing for Tropical Storm Rafael, which is expected to make landfall on the island as a hurricane on November 6, compounding the misery wrought by a massive blackout and Hurricane Oscar. (Photo by ADALBERTO ROQUE / AFP) (Photo by ADALBERTO ROQUE/AFP via Getty Images) ( )
![Fishermen remove their boats from the water ahead of the arrival of tropical storm Rafael in Havana on November 5, 2024. Cuba was bracing for Tropical Storm Rafael, which is expected to make landfall on the island as a hurricane on November 6, compounding the misery wrought by a massive blackout and Hurricane Oscar. (Photo by ADALBERTO ROQUE / AFP) (Photo by ADALBERTO ROQUE/AFP via Getty Images)]()
Image 6 of 7Fishermen remove their boats from the water ahead of the arrival of tropical storm Rafael in Havana on November 5, 2024. Cuba was bracing for Tropical Storm Rafael, which is expected to make landfall on the island as a hurricane on November 6, compounding the misery wrought by a massive blackout and Hurricane Oscar. (Photo by ADALBERTO ROQUE / AFP) (Photo by ADALBERTO ROQUE/AFP via Getty Images) ( )
![The waves and winds pick up in Key West, Florida from Hurricane Rafael on Nov. 6, 2024.]()
Image 7 of 7The waves and winds pick up in Key West, Florida from Hurricane Rafael on Nov. 6, 2024. ( )
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the lower and middle Florida Keys through Wednesday night. Rafael's outer bands could spin up tornadoes across parts of the Keys and southwestern Florida as it heads north overnight.
Heavy rain is expected across the western Caribbean through early Thursday, especially across the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. The NHC said rainfall totals of 4-8 inches are expected in parts of Cuba, with locally higher amounts of up to 12 inches in the higher terrain. An additional 2-4 inches could fall across the Cayman Islands.
In the lower and middle Florida Keys, rainfall totals of 1-3 inches are expected.
Watch: Key West begins feeling effects of Hurricane Rafael as storm spins hundreds of miles to the south in Caribbean
This video shows winds picking up across Key West as Hurricane Rafael spins hundreds of miles to the south in the Caribbean Sea. Key West is under a Tropical Storm Warning and forecasters say the late-season storm could approach major hurricane strength ahead of landfall in Cuba on Wednesday.
Forecasters are also concerned about the potential for a life-threatening storm surge. The NHC said a storm surge of 9-14 feet above normal high-tide levels is possible in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Cuba within the Hurricane Warning area, including the Isle of Youth.
A storm surge of 1-3 feet is forecast for the Dry Tortugas National Park area, with 1-2 feet predicted in the lower Florida Keys.
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Where is Hurricane Rafael?
(FOX Weather)
As of the latest advisory from the NHC, Rafael is about 55 miles west-northwest of Havana, Cuba, and moving northwest at 13 mph.
Rafael has maximum sustained winds of 105 mph, making it a Category 2 hurricane.
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(FOX Weather)
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect across western Cuba, including Havana.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the lower and middle Florida Keys from Key West to the Channel 5 Bridge, as well as for the Dry Tortugas. Central Cuba is also under a Tropical Storm Warning.
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What's the forecast for Hurricane Rafael?
(FOX Weather)
According to the NHC, Rafael is expected to continue moving northwestward overnight, followed by a gradual turn toward the west or west-northwest in the Gulf of Mexico. On that track, Rafael is expected to then emerge in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico overnight.
From there, computer forecast models are in disagreement as to where exactly Rafael is headed next.
"It is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts Rafael could bring to portions of the northern Gulf Coast," the NHC said. "Residents in this area should regularly monitor updates to the forecast."