New tropical disturbance being tracked in Atlantic
If the disturbance does develop into a tropical storm, it would take the name Beryl. Saharan dust is keeping it in check for now, though.
Tropical trouble brewing in East Caribbean
While multiple tropical waves are moving across the Atlantic's Main Development Region, only one shows potential for tropical development this weekend or early next week.
As of Tuesday afternoon, the National Hurricane Center designated this tropical disturbance as Invest 94L. Continuous coverage of Invest 94L has moved here.
A new tropical disturbance in the Atlantic Ocean has grabbed the attention of forecasters this week, with the National Hurricane Center (NHC) saying it has a low chance of becoming a tropical storm over the next several days.
The tropical disturbance is located over the southeastern Caribbean Sea and producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms as it moves quickly westward at around 25 mph.
"Environmental conditions could support some gradual development once the (disturbance) reaches the western Caribbean Sea late this week, and some development is also possible over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the weekend," the NHC wrote in its Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook.
(FOX Weather)
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"We do have one disturbance that we're watching – a 20% chance of seeing this tropical wave move across parts of the Yucatán Peninsula and push into the Bay of Campeche," FOX Weather Meteorologist Kiyana Lewis explained. "Once again, it's only a 20% chance within the next seven days or so, but it is a chance. So, we're going to be watching that very closely."
Meteorologists will watch for the disorganized thunderstorms to develop around a closed low-level center, a so-called warm-core low.
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This graphic shows the stages of tropical development from a tropical disturbance to a hurricane.
(FOX Weather)
So, you're saying there's a chance?
If it does develop into a tropical storm, it will be named Beryl. A tropical storm has sustained winds blowing between 39 and 74 mph. FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross said that he doesn't expect too much impact along the U.S. Gulf Coast as yet.
"The Hurricane Center is giving the disturbance a low chance of developing at this point," Norcross said. "The timeframe we're talking about is over next weekend. A blocking high-pressure system is forecast to set up across the southern U.S. This should keep any development well to the south."
The disturbance will have to survive intact through incoming Saharan dust though, which is why chances of development are low.
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(FOX Weather)
"The tropics are on pause for now. Saharan dust is dominating the tropical Atlantic. Even though robust tropical disturbances are moving off Africa, they can't develop as they move west," Norcross said. "When Saharan dust is present in the atmosphere, it creates a dry and stable layer, making it difficult for thunderstorms to organize and grow into tropical storms or hurricanes. This phenomenon is called the Saharan Air Layer (SAL)."
Ninety-seven percent of the Atlantic hurricane season still remains ahead of us.