Tropical Storm Helene forms in Caribbean Sea as Florida faces dangerous hurricane threat

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Tropical Storm Helene organizes in the northwestern Caribbean

The latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center noted that Tropical Storm Helene is organizing over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches remain in effect for parts of Florida. Sept. 24, 2024.

TAMPA – Tropical Storm Helene formed in the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday morning, putting Florida on high alert for significant impacts this week, including a dangerous and potentially deadly storm surge, flooding rain and destructive hurricane-force winds.

Tropical Storm Helene, formerly known as Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, is now the eighth named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) expects it to become a major hurricane (Category 3 or higher) on approach to Florida’s Big Bend region.

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Mandatory evacuations ordered; nearly all of Florida under state of emergency

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Florida preparing for Tropical Storm Helene's landfall

Mandatory evacuations are in place in several coastal counties in Florida, as Helene heads for the state. FOX Weather Storm Specialist Mike Seidel shows beach conditions on St. George Island, ahead of the storm. 

As future Hurricane Helene sets its sights on the Sunshine State, residents have been busy preparing for the storm as state and local officials begin to issue mandatory evacuation orders and declare states of emergency.

On Monday, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis issued an executive order declaring a state of emergency for 41 of the state’s 67 counties to help agencies prepare for the incoming storm. On Tuesday, he expanded the declaration to include 61 counties—essentially all of Florida except the southeastern areas.

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Mandatory evacuation orders have been issued up and down Florida's Gulf Coast, from the Panhandle to Southwest Florida.

Helene isn't just expected to cause problems for Florida. Tropical storm-force winds could cause power outages across the Southeast as Helene moves farther inland. On Tuesday, President Joe Biden approved federal assistance for Georgia and declared that a major disaster exists in the state.

Helene expected to rapidly intensify over Gulf of Mexico

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What does it mean when a hurricane undergoes rapid intensification?

Rapid intensification is a term used for tropical cyclones (tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes) that – you guessed it – intensify at a rapid pace, but there are strict criteria a storm must meet to officially undergo rapid intensification.

According to the NHC, Helene is expected to rapidly intensify over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and become a major hurricane as it approaches the northeastern Gulf Coast on Thursday.

"The risk of impacts from life-threatening storm surge and damaging hurricane-force wind gusts continues to increase along the coast of the Florida Panhandle and the Florida west coast," the NHC warned.

Rapid intensification is a term used for tropical cyclones that intensify at a rapid rate, but there are strict criteria a storm must meet to officially undergo rapid intensification. Among them are when maximum sustained winds increase by at least 35 mph in a 24-hour period.

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Where is Tropical Storm Helene?

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Watch: Large waves, strong winds from Tropical Storm Helene lash Grand Cayman

A video recorded on the south side of Grand Cayman shows strong winds bending trees and large waves crashing onshore as Tropical Storm Helene moves across the Caribbean Sea.

The NHC found that maximum sustained winds reached at least 45 mph with higher gusts, allowing Tropical Storm Helene to form on Tuesday morning.

The system is moving northwest, and that general motion is expected into Tuesday night, followed by a faster northward to north-northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday.

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The latest information on Tropical Storm Helene.

(FOX Weather)

Where are watches and warnings in effect for Tropical Storm Helene?

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Lower Florida Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge and for the Dry Tortugas.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the Middle Florida Keys from the Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect from Englewood to Indian Pass and Tampa Bay.

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Tropical alerts for Helene.

(FOX Weather)

With the current forecast, hurricane conditions are possible within the watch areas by early Wednesday, and tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas beginning Tuesday. 

The NHC said residents of the northeastern Gulf Coast, the Florida Panhandle and parts of Florida's west coast should continue to monitor the forecast for updates. 

What is the forecast for Tropical Storm Helene?

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Watch: Winds from Tropical Storm Helene slam Grand Cayman

Tropical Storm Helene formed in the Caribbean Sea on Tuesday, and video recorded in Grand Cayman shows winds from the storm whipping while large waves crash onshore.

Tropical Storm Helene is likely to bring gusty winds, heavy rain with the potential for flash flooding, coastal flooding and dangerous beach conditions to Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, western Cuba and the U.S. Gulf Coast in Florida.

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This graphic shows the forecast track for Tropical Storm Helene.

(FOX Weather)

According to the NHC, models suggest a more well-defined center should develop, and conditions appear favorable for significant strengthening as the system moves across the Gulf of Mexico, potentially making landfall in Florida on Thursday. Helene is forecast to become a hurricane on Wednesday and could become a major hurricane on Thursday, according to the NHC. 

Heavy rainfall will spread from the Gulf Coast into the Southeast U.S. beginning Wednesday and continuing through Friday, potentially causing flash and river flooding.

National Weather Service offices across the South and Southeast launched an extra weather balloon early Tuesday morning, gathering extra atmospheric data. The balloons measure temperature, dew point, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure and wind direction and speed and reach as high as 20 miles above the ground until it pops.

By launching more balloons, meteorologists and the computers that generate our forecast models can get updated real-time weather data from the upper atmosphere that are crucial to the accuracy of model projections. 

The NWS is asking 18 of their offices in the region to continue to double their launches of balloons to every 6 hours instead of every 12 hours throughout the week as Helene approaches the U.S.