First Hurricane Warnings issued in Florida as Tropical Storm Helene evacuation orders mount

The National Hurricane Center said Tropical Storm Helene is expected to strengthen into a major hurricane before making landfall on Florida's Gulf Coast or Big Bend region later this week. Storm Surge and Hurricane Warnings are in place for Florida's Gulf Coast.

TAMPA – Tropical Storm Helene has Florida and the Southeast on high alert for significant impacts this week, as the first Hurricane Warnings have been issued for the Sunshine State. The storm is forecast to become a major hurricane, bringing a possibly deadly storm surge, flooding rain and destructive hurricane-force winds.

Tropical Storm Helene is now the eighth named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) expects it to become a major hurricane (Category 3 or higher) on approach to Florida’s Big Bend region.

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National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome said Helene is unique for its large size and the intensification it's expected to undergo over the next 24 hours. 

"A lot of people wrongly use the current intensity, how it looks currently in satellite imagery, as their overall indicator of risk, not what the storm will be when it moves ashore or moves into their community, but how it looks right now," Rhome said. "Up until a few hours ago, it didn't look particularly organized in satellite imagery. So a lot of people were kind of wrongly maybe dismissing this storm."

Mandatory evacuations underway in Florida 

As future Hurricane Helene sets its sights on the Sunshine State, residents have been busy preparing for the storm as state and local officials begin to issue mandatory evacuation orders and declare states of emergency.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis issued an executive order declaring a state of emergency for 61 of the state’s 67 counties to help agencies prepare for the incoming storm.

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Storm clouds are pictured as people walk on the beach ahead of the arrival of Hurricane Helene in Cancun, Quintana Roo state, Mexico on September 24, 2024. (Photo by Elizabeth Ruiz / AFP) (Photo by ELIZABETH RUIZ/AFP via Getty Images) ( )

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Storm clouds are pictured as people walk on the beach ahead of the arrival of Hurricane Helene in Cancun, Quintana Roo state, Mexico on September 24, 2024. (Photo by Elizabeth Ruiz / AFP) (Photo by ELIZABETH RUIZ/AFP via Getty Images) ( )

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A surfer leaves the beach ahead of the arrival of Hurricane Helene in Cancun, Quintana Roo state, Mexico on September 24, 2024. (Photo by Elizabeth Ruiz / AFP) (Photo by ELIZABETH RUIZ/AFP via Getty Images) ( )

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People secure their boats ahead of the arrival of soon-to-be Hurricane Helene in Cancun, Quintana Roo state, Mexico on September 24, 2024. (Photo by Elizabeth Ruiz / AFP) (Photo by ELIZABETH RUIZ/AFP via Getty Images) ( )

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This image shows conditions as Tropical Storm Helene lashed Grand Cayman on Tuesday, Sept. 24, 2024. (@Kelse_RaeSmith/X)

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This image shows long lines as a gas station in Tallahassee, Florida, on Tuesday, Sept. 24, 2024. (Ryan Cedergren)

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This image shows waves crashing on shore in Grand Cayman as Tropical Storm Helene lashes the region. (@Kelse_RaeSmith/X)

Mandatory evacuation orders have been issued up and down Florida's Gulf Coast, from the Panhandle to Southwest Florida.

Helene isn't just expected to cause problems for Florida. Tropical-storm-force winds could cause power outages across the Southeast as Helene moves farther inland. On Tuesday, President Joe Biden approved federal assistance for Georgia and Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp declared a state of emergency.

Helene will also be a rainmaker for the Southeast. 

"The other unique thing about big storms is they can hang on to that momentum and carry that momentum farther inland, both the wind and in this case, the rain," Rhome said. "Look how far inland it reaches, all the way up into Atlanta, to upstate South Carolina and possibly even western North Carolina could feel significant impacts from this system down the line."

Where are watches and warnings in effect for Tropical Storm Helene?

Storm Surge and Hurricane Warnings are in place for Florida's Gulf Coast. 

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued in Florida from Flamingo to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued from Anclote River to Mexico Beach, Florida.

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning from Cabo Catoche to Tulum.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Middle Florida Keys to the Channel 5 Bridge. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Gulf coast of Florida from Flamingo northward to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay, and west of Mexico Beach to the Walton and Bay County Line.

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A Hurricane Watch is in effect from Englewood to Indian Pass and Tampa Bay.

With the current forecast, hurricane conditions are possible within the watch areas by early Wednesday, and tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas beginning Tuesday. 

What is the forecast for Tropical Storm Helene?

According to the NHC, Helene has maximum sustained winds reaching at least 50 mph with higher gusts.

The system is moving northwest, and that general motion is expected into Tuesday night, followed by a faster northward to north-northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday.

On Tuesday, strong winds and dangerous surf are being felt on Grand Cayman. 

Helene is expected to rapidly intensify over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and become a major hurricane as it approaches the northeastern Gulf Coast on Thursday. Rapid intensification refers to the process when a storm quickly strengthens, including when maximum sustained winds increase by at least 35 mph in a 24-hour period for a tropical cyclone.

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Tropical Storm Helene is likely to bring gusty winds, heavy rain with the potential for flash flooding, coastal flooding and dangerous beach conditions to Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, western Cuba and the U.S. Gulf Coast in Florida.

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According to the NHC, models suggest a more well-defined center should develop, and conditions appear favorable for significant strengthening as the system moves across the Gulf of Mexico, potentially making landfall in Florida on Thursday. Helene is forecast to become a hurricane on Wednesday and could become a major hurricane on Thursday, according to the NHC. 

Heavy rainfall will spread from the Gulf Coast into the Southeast U.S. beginning Wednesday and continuing through Friday, potentially causing flash and river flooding.

National Weather Service offices across the South and Southeast launched an extra weather balloon early Tuesday morning, gathering extra atmospheric data. The balloons measure temperature, dew point, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure and wind direction and speed and reach as high as 20 miles above the ground until it pops.

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By launching more balloons, meteorologists and the computers that generate our forecast models can obtain updated real-time weather data from the upper atmosphere, which is crucial to the accuracy of model projections. 

The NWS is asking 18 of its offices in the region to continue doubling their balloon launches to every 6 hours instead of every 12 hours throughout the week as Helene approaches the U.S.