Tropical Storm Warning issued for Hawaii's Big Island ahead of impacts from Hone

On the forecast track, the center of Hone is expected to pass near or south of the Big Island on Saturday night into Sunday.

This story is now archived. Please head here for the latest forecast and impacts information on Tropical Storm Hone. 

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HONOLULU Less than 12 hours after the formation of a tropical depression approximately 1,000 miles away from Hawaii, the system had organized enough to be declared Tropical Storm Hone – the first of the season in the Central Pacific.

On the forecast track, the center of Hone is expected to pass south of the Big Island late in the weekend. 

Direct landfalls in Hawaii are rare, occurring approximately once every decade or two, according to historical tracking data.

Tracking Hone
(FOX WEATHER)


 

LIVE TRACKER: HONE'S FORECAST CONE, SATELLITE IMAGERY, SPAGHETTI MODELS

The presence of dry air and moderate water temperatures in the upper 70s are expected to be limiting factors for intensification, the FOX Forecast Center said.

Due to the potential for the cyclone to venture close to the state, a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Big Island. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the alert area, generally within the next 36 hours.

While the storm is likely to track south of the Big Island, its moisture will lead to tropical downpours across the windward side of the Hawaiian Islands. These downpours could trigger flash flooding and mudslides. If the system gets strong enough, we could also see an increase in big waves and swells coming into the islands, the FOX Forecast Center said.

FOX Weather Correspondent Robert Ray arrived in Hawaii on Thursday and is reporting live from the field as Hone approaches the state on alert.

The uncertainty of the forecast and the potential for direct impacts are why forecasters always advise residents to be prepared for hurricane season and any potential effects.

In 2023, Category 4 Hurricane Dora passed more than 500 miles south of the island chain but contributed to conditions that were conducive to wind-driven wildfires. The disaster ultimately resulted in the destruction of thousands of structures on Maui and at least 102 fatalities.

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What is the forecast for Tropical Storm Hone?

Hone is about 600 miles east-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii, and moving on a westerly trajectory. On its current heading, the system is expected to remain in the open waters of the Central Pacific throughout its lifecycle. It will make its closest approach to Hawaii over the weekend.

According to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center, the system could strengthen to near hurricane strength over the weekend while tracking near or south of Hawaii, with a direct landfall unlikely.

Tracking Hone
(FOX WEATHER)


 

HOW OFTEN DO HURRICANES HIT HAWAII?

What are the expected impacts in Hawaii?

The National Weather Service office in Honolulu is tracking rainfall, surf and wind impacts that will directly and indirectly impact the islands.

Forecasters expect 4-8 inches of rainfall on the southern portions of the Big Island and 2-4 inches of precipitation in mountainous regions on other small islands.

Additionally, increased swells are expected to reach the islands over the weekend and cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.

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This is especially true on southern-facing beaches such as Wailea Beach in Maui, Polihale State Park in Kauai and Punaluʻu Black Sand Beach on the Big Island.

Increased gusty winds are expected to impact most, if not all, of the islands, but sustained winds are expected to remain below tropical storm force (40-plus mph) in most communities.

What else is being tracked in the tropics?

The Atlantic is as quiet as weather watchers will ever see the basin in August. 

Forecasters expect no tropical cyclone formation through the end of the month due to influxes of dry air and water temperatures that have turned cooler than in past seasons.

It is a different story in the Eastern and Central Pacific, with at least two tropical cyclones and possibly a third during the next week.

The strongest of the two current systems is Hurricane Gilma, which is about 1,900 miles away from Hawaii.

The once-Category 3 hurricane had plenty of warm water and sufficient moisture, which allowed the tropical cyclone to strengthen into a major hurricane.

Tracking the tropics
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The National Hurricane Center forecasts weakening during the next several days, but Gilma is expected to remain a hurricane through much of the upcoming weekend.

Similar to Hone, Gilma is moving westerly or west-northwest, in the general direction of Hawaii.

Due to its slow forward speed of about 6 mph, the storm system’s closest approach to Hawaii would likely not occur until around the Labor Day weekend.

The hurricane season in both the Central and Eastern Pacific runs through Nov. 30.

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