Atlantic awakens with multiple tropical disturbances being tracked as hurricane season nears peak
A disturbance that could become the next tropical storm in the Atlantic is showing more signs of organization, while the NHC has a new tropical disturbance to monitor for development as it moves away from the west coast of Africa.
Bryan Norcross discusses future of tropical disturbances in Atlantic
FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross talks about the potential development of two tropical disturbances being watched in the Atlantic Ocean.
MIAMI — "X" now marks not just one, but three spots in the Atlantic basin and Gulf of Mexico as the National Hurricane Center (NHC) added two new tropical disturbances to monitor for development since Thursday.
In the Atlantic, The NHC said that the newest system to track is currently just a disorganized area of thunderstorms just off the western African coast. Those storms have become a little more concentrated near its axis, but atmospheric conditions do indicate the potential for slow development toward the middle of next week as it drifts over the eastern tropical Atlantic. The agency pegs the current development odds as low during the next seven days.
"The steering currents are very weak, so the disturbance isn't going anywhere fast," says FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross. "There is always higher uncertainty in the track and development of systems that lollygag around, so we'll watch it. But there's no concern at the current time."
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Meanwhile, odds have been holding relatively steady on Friday for the development of a tropical wave that has already made the journey about halfway across the Atlantic and has been under the watchful eyes of the NHC for a few days.
Thunderstorms remain disorganized as of Friday, but the NHC says storms have become more concentrated near its axis. Environmental conditions also look better for the system's gradual development, to the point that a tropical depression could form by early next week while it moves west toward the Lesser Antilles at 10-15 mph.
The NHC currently gives the disturbance a medium chance of developing within the next week.
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"If it can attain some measure of organization by the time it gets to the Caribbean, the environment there could be conducive for significant development," Norcross said. "While some long-range computer forecasts show the system becoming a hurricane and potentially affecting the U.S., many do not. The macro factors appear to be in place for a tropical system to develop, organize, and strengthen, but when a system is part of an elongated area of low pressure, the process of organizing is usually slow."
Still, until the system gains a more cohesive center, computer forecast projections will face challenges in producing consistent forecasts.
"Everyone in the eastern and northeastern Caribbean should prepare to stay informed over the weekend," Norcross said. "If the system can organize to a reasonable degree over the next several days, the atmospheric pattern near the islands and through the Caribbean appears conducive to development. A significant tropical storm or hurricane could develop."
New disturbance being monitored in the Gulf of Mexico for tropical development
On Friday, the NHC added a third area to watch with a broad disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico now being monitored for potential tropical development.
A trough of low pressure is currently producing a large but disorganized area of thunderstorms along and just offshore the Texas and Louisiana coasts.
New area to watch for tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico.
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With little in the way of winds to steer the system, storms are expected to meander near the coast through much of next week. But some slow tropical development is possible if the system remains offshore over the warm Gulf of Mexico waters, according to the NHC.
NEW DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
Right now, the NHC is only giving low odds of development into at least a tropical depression within the next week. The agency warned that regardless of tropical development, heavy rains could cause flash flooding along portions of the Louisiana and upper Texas coasts over the next few days.