Potential Tropical Cyclone 19 forms, forecast to become Tropical Storm Sara and possibly impact Florida
Florida residents are on alert for what will likely become Tropical Storm Sara with just weeks left to go before the official end of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.
Florida on alert as Potential Tropical Cyclone 19 forms in the Caribbean
A disturbance swirling over the Caribbean Sea has now been designated as Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen on Wednesday, and forecasters say the system will eventually likely strengthen into Tropical Storm Sara in the coming days. Nov. 13, 2024.
UPDATE: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen has continued to become better organized and developed into Tropical Depression Nineteen on Thursday. Coverage continues here.
MIAMI – A disturbance swirling over the Caribbean Sea on Wednesday has now been designated Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen, and forecasters say the system will likely strengthen into Tropical Storm Sara in the coming days.
The potential tropical cyclone designation allows the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other governments to issue tropical weather watches and warnings when a disturbance isn't quite at tropical storm strength but is expected to get there soon with storm impacts occurring within 36 hours.
Some of those models show that the system, previously designated as Invest 99L on Tuesday, could continue to strengthen and become a hurricane. Hurricane Watches have been posted for parts of Honduras, with Tropical Storm Watches in northern Nicaragua.
"The atmospheric pattern over the Caribbean appears extremely conducive for likely-Sara to further organize and strengthen," FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross said. "The only obvious impediment to the system becoming an intense hurricane in the Caribbean appears to be interaction with land."
What's the latest with Potential Tropical Cyclone 19?
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen is located in the Caribbean Sea about 460 miles east of Isla Guanaja in Honduras. Its peak winds are 30 mph, and it is slowly moving westward.
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What's the forecast for Potential Tropical Cyclone 19?
The NHC says Potential Tropical Cyclone 19 will continue to move westward toward the western Caribbean Sea, and Jamaica should see showers and thunderstorms associated with the system throughout the next day.
Strengthening is expected during the next few days. The system is forecast to become Tropical Storm Sara on Thursday and continue strengthening as it drifts near the coast of Central America.
The slow-moving storm is forecast to bring life-threatening flooding to northern Honduras with expected rainfall between 10 and 20 inches, with isolated areas seeing upwards of 30 inches, the NHC said.
"This rainfall will lead to widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, especially along and near the Sierra La Esperanza," the NHC said.
Tropical-storm-force winds of at least 40 mph are likely in the area by late Thursday, with the potential for hurricane-force winds (74 mph or higher) in eastern Honduras on Friday. Storm surge of 1-3 feet is possible along the Honduras coastline north of where the tropical cyclone approaches or moves onshore.
Florida on alert as long-range forecasts indicate possible impacts from likely-Sara
Likely-Sara is forecast to meander around Central America through the weekend and into Mexico's Yucatán Peninsula into early next week as the steering currents remain light.
"High pressure nudges in from the north and west over the weekend, and that more or less locks this thing down in the Caribbean into the early part of next week," FOX Weather Meteorologist Ian Oliver said. "There's nowhere to go off to the north because … that high pressure acts like a wall. So this thing is stuck there … that's why this (forecast) cone looks kind of funky at this point."
Meanwhile, the system can take advantage of the warm waters and low wind shear while it sits over water, though the storm may weaken some if it drifts over land.
The high pressure should begin to move around Tuesday or Wednesday next week, potentially unlocking the Gulf of Mexico. But where it sets up will ultimately determine the path of future-Sara.
The steering currents may push the system into Central America or allow likely-Sara to move north and track into the Gulf of Mexico sometime next week – and could eventually impact Florida.
"The fact that so many of the variety of computer forecast models are indicating a threat to Florida is concerning, but things can change," Norcross said. "As always, when a system is just developing, forecast errors are likely to be large."
In the meantime, the forecast cone will remain bottled up until the next day or two, when the fifth day of the forecast moves into next week.
"It won't be until (Thursday), (or) the day after, when we get this five-day cone up into the Gulf of Mexico that we'll start to see it have more of a shape that arcs off to the north and east," Oliver said.